After a mild and dry start to June this weekend across Manitoba, a stormy Monday is on tap for Western Manitoba with the risk of severe thunderstorms. On the bright side, the storm threat will be accompanied by toasty temperatures feeling like 30c or warmer. If you get out early enough on Monday, you might be able to enjoy it for a few hours as the storms aren’t expected to fire up until the late afternoon.
The day will begin with some scattered showers and thunderstorm throughout Central Manitoba (north of Peguis) during the morning and afternoon hours. The rest of Manitoba will remain dry until around 3-5pm when developing thunderstorms will move in from Saskatchewan and affect Western Manitoba. A few of these storms may become severe and be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado risk is rather low tomorrow but an isolated one can’t be ruled out.
There is some uncertain exactly where these storms will cross into Manitoba with the Swan River to Virden corridor at the highest risk for severe storms. The storms will slowly weaken over time as the energy fueling the storms diminish later into the evening so anywhere east of a line roughly from Dauphin to Killarney will likely see just non-severe storm. The only exception to this is a zone south of Portage La Prarie (Treherne, Carman, Winkler etc.) that models are indicating could see isolated storm development ahead of the cluster from Saskatchewan.
The severe risk will quickly come to an end before midnight, but rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected to continue into the overnight affecting most of Southern Manitoba including Winnipeg.