Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid: Sunday, May 24, 2020
Forecaster: Brennen Perry
Thunderstorm outlook map
NOTE: The tornado risk zone outlines the region with the highest probability of tornadoes, but tornadoes may occur outside of the zone.
Timing |
Southwestern: 3PM - 8PM
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Not sure what region you are in? Click here for a map showing the regions across Southern Ontario. Northeastern Ontario is north of North Bay (not shown on map).
Thunderstorm Threatcast
Thunderstorm Confidence |
High (75%) |
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Severe Confidence |
Moderate (50%) |
Tornadoes |
Isolated (Questionable) |
Max Wind Gusts |
90+ kmh | 56+ mph |
Max Hail Size |
Quarter |
Max 24-hr Rainfall |
~75 mm | ~3" |
UPDATE (May 24 - 2:10PM): After carefully going over the latest data, we’ve decided that our current forecast map is still accurate so we won’t be issuing an updated map for this event
Forecast Discussion
Issued: Saturday, May 23, 2020 - 11:45PM
Another stellar day with temperatures we usually experience in the middle of summer is expected to start off Sunday although as we head into the late afternoon and early evening hours we’ll see the threat of thunderstorms in parts of Southern Ontario. Some of these storms could be quite strong and reach severe levels with large hail and flash flooding as the main threats initially and strong wind gusts later in the evening.
Isolated cellular storms are expected to develop in a line stretching from Georgian Bay and southward towards the Grand Bend during the late afternoon. The latest data continues to point towards an area around the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay at the highest threat of severe storms where we can’t even rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado as the storms over Georgian Bay comes ashore. This line will continue to track southeastward through the evening and slowly transition into a squall line with strong wind gusts becoming more dominant as it heads in the Golden Horseshoe region. The storm risk will come to an end for our region just after midnight as the storms move across Lake Ontario and into Upstate New York.
