Thunderstorm Outlook

NOTE: The tornado risk zone outlines the region with the highest probability of tornadoes, but tornadoes may occur outside of the zone.

Forecast Discussion

Issued: SATURDAY, JUNE 13, 2020 - 1:00PM

The strongest thunderstorm risk of the year up to this point is upon us, especially in the red areas on the map where isolated thunderstorm could bring with them the risk of 3-5cm hail, damaging wind gusts up to 110km/h+, torrential rain with a slight chance of isolated flooding, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Other areas outside of the red (significant risk) that we have highlighted in orange and yellow may see very isolated severe thunderstorms but it is possible that many areas will be completely missed and will end up seeing zero activity this afternoon and evening.

The further into the overnight we get, the more the overall tornado and severe weather risk will diminish. Frequent lightning and very isolated flooding isn’t off the table either, especially if some areas see more than one thunderstorm in a row.

Thunderstorm Threatcast

Environment Canada has also created a forecast for today’s risk and they wrote:

”Alberta

• Area(s): All except west-central regions

• Timing: Afternoon to overnight

• Threats: 2-4 cm hail, 110 km/h wind gusts

A trough of low pressure moving through Alberta on Saturday will trigger thunderstorms, with a high probability of severe thunderstorms from southeastern regions through to north-central regions of the province. Hail of up to 4 cm is possible along with strong wind gusts up to 110 km/h. Thunderstorms are expected to persist into the overnight period.”