Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Wednesday, January 12, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

There is the potential for some lake effect flurries or snow off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay primarily during the morning and afternoon hours on Wednesday. We aren’t expecting much in terms of significant accumulation from this event as the lake effect snow won’t be particularly organized. Those in Central Ontario east of Georgian Bay along with Grey-Bruce counties could see localized accumulation ranging from 2-6cm by the end of Wednesday. The rest of Southern Ontario will see some brief flurries sometime during the day with less than 2cm of accumulation expected.

Northern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Saturday, January 8, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A system from Manitoba is expected to slide across Northern Ontario during the day on Saturday. It will bring the potential for widespread snowfall accumulation ranging from 6 to 12cm by the end of the day. There is some areas around the Lake Superior shoreline including Marathon and Wawa that could pick up closer to 15-20cm due to lake enhancement. The snowfall will start near midnight around the Manitoba border and spread eastward throughout the morning and into the afternoon. We expect it will move out just after the dinner hour but could linger later in the evening for Northeastern Ontario. Those in Northeastern Ontario just to the north of Georgian Bay will mostly be unaffected with less than 2cm of accumulation expected. The rest of the province will see widespread accumulating snowfall.

Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Friday, January 7, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and snow squalls that brought over 20cm of snowfall accumulation to regions east of Lake Huron are expected to linger into Friday. The lake effect snow off Lake Huron has gotten fairly disorganized this evening but will reorganize overnight and into Friday morning. Current indications suggest a fairly intense band of snow setting up from Goderich and stretching into the Stratford and Grand Bend area. This will continue throughout the day before fizzling out just after the dinner hour. We could also see some scattered lake effect snow off the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay, but it shouldn’t be that intense.

When it comes to accumulation, we are looking at a general 10-15cm east of Lake Huron in addition to anything from Thursday. A few localized pockets could pick up as much as 20-25cm should a squall lock into a particular area for an extended period of time. The Collingwood and Meaford area can expect around 5-10cm of fresh snow on Thursday with locally as much as 15cm. We’re not expecting any significant snow for any other parts of Southern Ontario with just scattered lake effect flurries from the activity off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Northern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Tuesday, January 4 - Wednesday, January 5, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A strengthening low-pressure system is expected to track into Northern Ontario late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. This system will bring the potential for widespread accumulating snowfall through the lower part of Northern Ontario with up to 20-30cm of accumulation by the end of Wednesday. In addition to the snow, we are also expecting some fairly strong winds to be associated with this system particularly around the shoreline of Lake Superior. The strongest gusts will occur during the overnight and into Wednesday morning which will collide with the heavy snowfall and likely result in blowing snow or even localized blizzard conditions.

Snowfall is expected to start sometime Tuesday afternoon with those around the Manitoba border seeing the first bands of precipitation. By the evening, the snow will extend across the region from Kenora to Cochrane. There is some uncertainty regarding how far north the precipitation will go and there will be a very tight gradient between who sees the 20-30cm of snow and those who see just a few flurries. We believe the cut-off will be somewhere north of a line from Dryden to Kapuskasing, but this may fluctuate as we get closer so keep in mind that the forecast might be a little more tricky in those areas.

Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue overnight across the region and linger into Wednesday morning. Again, we expect the worst condition will be found during the overnight hour as the heavy snow combines with the strong wind gusts to produce near-zero visibility on the roads. We should begin to see the snow tapper off and conditions improve starting just after sunrise on Wednesday for those in Northwestern Ontario. While Northeastern Ontario should expect to see persistent snowfall throughout the day on Wednesday with it moving out during the evening.

In terms of accumulation, a fairly expensive zone around Lake Superior from Thunder Bay and into Northeastern Ontario including Wawa, Chapleau and Timmins could pick up between 20-30cm of snow by the end of the system. There is the potential that a few locations may even exceed the 30cm mark, but it’s questionable and not all of the models agree on this. For the rest of Northeastern Ontario (Sudbury, Elliot Lake, Sault Ste. Marrie etc.) along with those in Kenora and Fort Frances, we’re looking at snowfall totals around 12-20cm by the end of Wednesday. As we mentioned, the gradient with the expected snowfall is quite tight so the snowfall totals will decrease substantially the further north you go as shown on our map.

Strong and potentially damaging wind gusts are possible through areas around Lake Superior. We may see gusts approach the 90km/h mark or even exceed it close to the shoreline. This is primarily during the early part of Wednesday but could continue throughout the day for those along the eastern shoreline of Lake Superior.