Scattered non-severe thunderstorms may develop through parts of Northeastern Ontario during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. The exact intensity and coverage of these storms are uncertain at this time.
A few weakening non-severe thunderstorms over Eastern Ontario from Monday evening may linger into the early morning hours of Tuesday although it’s questionable if the storms can survive long enough. There is also a potential risk for thunderstorms later in the day in Extreme Eastern Ontario around the Cornwall area.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected in the forecasted region on this day.
Widespread non-severe thunderstorms are possible throughout all of Southern Ontario during the morning, afternoon and evening hours on Monday. These storms could produce small hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The storm risk will come to an end late in the evening around the midnight hour as they fizzle out.
Pop-up thunderstorms could be possible during the afternoon and evening on Sunday throughout Northeastern Ontario along the Quebec border. The exact coverage and severity of these storms are unclear, but it should be non-severe so we’re waiting for the day 1 outlook to issue a forecast for this event.
Scattered pop-up thunderstorms could be possible through northern parts of Central and Eastern Ontario during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. Although at this time the exact intensity of these storms and the coverage is unclear. Could also see one or two storms early in the morning at decaying thunderstorms cross into the province from Michigan for areas east of Lake Huron.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected in the forecasted region on this day.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected in the forecasted region on this day.
A questionable risk of storms exists for Northwestern Ontario along the Manitoba border which may see storms enter the province from Manitoba and Minnesota later in the day on Friday. The exact strengthen of these storms is currently unclear and depends on the timing. If they show up too late in the night then it will bring just a non-severe nocturnal thunderstorm risk.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected in the forecasted region on this day.
Non-severe thunderstorms expected to cross into the province late Wednesday will continue to track across the province during the early hours of Thursday. These storms won’t be particaully strong and should fizzle out later in the morning. The main risk is some strong wind gusts, small hail and heavy rainfall along with frequent lightning strikes.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected in the forecasted region on this day.
There could be some thunderstorm activity along the Manitoba border in Northwestern Ontario with non-severe storms during the morning and some more potential severe storms developing in Southeastern Manitoba and tracking into Northwestern Ontario during the evening hours on Wednesday. It is unclear exactly how strong these storms could be and the timing which could have a huge influence if the worst stays in Manitoba or is able to cross over the border.
Another day of slow-moving pop-up thunderstorms is expected during the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday for a small area stretching from Sarnia through London and around the GTA. The latest data indicates the strongest potential for the storms around in the Huron/Perth counties and K/A area. There could also be a flooding threat due to the slow-moving nature of the storms with localized rainfall totals over 50mm.
A decaying complex of non-severe thunderstorms is expected to move into Northwestern Ontario around the Fort Francis area from Minnesota during the early morning hours on Tuesday. These storms will be slowly weakening as they track eastward along the International border through Thunder Bay and regions around Lake Superior throughout the late morning. It will likely fade out before reaching Northeastern Ontario, but the environment is favourable for storm development throughout southern parts of Northeastern Ontario such as Sault Ste. Marrie, Timmins and Sudbury during the afternoon and evening. Not all models show storms developing despite the high instability although if they do fire up, there is a questionable severe risk with the storms that develop. We may need to upgrade some areas to the isolated severe risk category if storm development is looking more likely.
Widespread scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect Southern Ontario starting with a round of storms early in the morning for Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe. Another round will develop later in the day throughout the region bringing the potential for mostly non-severe wind, hail and rainfall. There is also some questionable severe risk mainly through Northeastern and Eastern Ontario where high instability exists (shown in the ‘questionable severe risk’ zone), but storm development appears to happen further south where the environment is less favourable. At this point, we’re sticking with a non-severe risk but some areas may need to be upgraded to an isolated severe risk if storm development in the area with the stronger environment is looking more likely.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected in the forecasted region on this day.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected in the forecasted region on this day.
