Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Friday, October 22, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Near-freezing temperatures will flow into parts of Southern Ontario during the early morning hours of Friday. This will bring the risk of widespread frost throughout Central, Eastern and higher elevations of Southwestern Ontario. Temperatures will moderate somewhat after sunrise so the frost risk should come to an end by mid-morning. Keep in mind this is only a preliminary map so the frost risk may extend outside of the zone as outlined on the map - we will have an updated map issued by Thursday evening if there’s any change in the data.

Northern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Thursday, October 21, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

UPDATE (Wed. PM): There are no changes to our initial forecast although the rain/snow mix for Northeastern Ontario doesn’t appear as widespread in the latest data so locations like Sudbury and Elliot Lake might not see any snow.

Scattered flurries over regions near Hudson Bay will spread further south on Thursday to include locations like Sandy Lake, Fort Hope, Kapuskasing and Cochrane. Limited accumulation is expected with at most a few centimetres of accumulation. In addition to this, a system will track through the Great Lakes bringing heavy precipitation mostly in the form of rain. However, during the early morning hours on Thursday, there might be some snow that mixes in with the rain on the far northern edge of the system as it affects the Elliot Lake, Temiskaming Shores and Sudbury area. With temperatures near the freezing mark, we don’t expect any significant accumulation although it could result in some slushy road conditions.

Northern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Monday, October 18, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered showers will affect parts of Northeastern Ontario and up into Far Northern Ontario along Hudson Bay late Sunday with temperatures expected to drop to near the freezing mark early Monday morning. These colder temperatures could allow for the precipitation to transition over to some wet flurries particularly along the Quebec border. The risk for flurries will continue throughout the morning but should come to an end by the noon hour as the moisture moves out of the region. Very little accumulation is expected due to the warm group and earlier rainfall. At most, we can expect one or two wet slushy centimetres that will quickly melt later in the day.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday, July 20, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Thunderstorm development is possible across Southern Ontario during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. A few of these storms could beomce severe in a zone stretching from Owen Sound to Lake Simcoe and along the northern shoreline of Lake Ontario. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the main threats with these storms although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Right now, the tornado risk isn’t clear so we’re waiting until the next forecast update to pinpoint any tornado risk if it still exsits. As we get closer to the event the isolated severe risk zone may change and we may even have to introduce a severe risk zone if the storm risk becomes stronger. We’ll have more details with our final forecast on Monday evening.