Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday, June 14, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

An area of rain with embedded non-severe thunderstorms is expected to affect areas around Georgian Bay, Lake Huron and into the GTA during the morning hours on Monday. The main concern with these storms is heavy rainfall with a few pockets picking up rainfall totals between 20-40mm by the afternoon. A more robust risk of thunderstorms will develop later in the day through the late afternoon and into the evening with all of Southern Ontario at the risk of seeing a thunderstorm. There are some indications that a few stronger storms could develop in Eastern Ontario that may reach severe levels with large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The tornado risk with these storms isn’t particularly strong, but as usual, can’t be fully ruled out. The severe risk will come to an end by midnight although scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorm continue through the overnight in Eastern Ontario

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday, June 14, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Widespread non-severe thunderstorms are possible throughout all of Southern Ontario during the morning, afternoon and evening hours on Monday. These storms could produce small hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The storm risk will come to an end late in the evening around the midnight hour as they fizzle out.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, June 13, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Northern Ontario during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. These storms could produce small hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. One or two of these storms could potentially be severe particularly around the Quebec border, but it’s very questionable so we aren’t including a severe risk on our map at this point. Storms are also possible in the morning around the Manitoba border as some weakening storms track into the province.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, June 13, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

A weakening cluster of storms that brought severe weather to parts of Michigan on Saturday evening is expected to track into Southwestern Ontario during the early morning hours on Sunday. The main risk is between 12-4 am with a focus on the Windsor area and around the southern shoreline of Lake Huron. These storms will be quite weak by the time to reach our region with maybe some small hail, strong wind gusts and of course heavy rainfall with some lightning.

In addition to this, there is the risk of some pop-up storms over parts of Northeastern, Central and Eastern Ontario during the afternoon and evening. They should also be mainly non-severe although one or two cells could be quite strong and come close to severe levels. Still, the environment isn't really favourable for widespread severe activity. We’ll continue to monitor this and may need to introduce an isolated severe risk zone if it looks more probable.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, June 13, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Pop-up thunderstorms could be possible during the afternoon and evening on Sunday throughout Northeastern Ontario along the Quebec border. The exact coverage and severity of these storms are unclear, but it should be non-severe so we’re waiting for the day 1 outlook to issue a forecast for this event.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, June 13, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered pop-up thunderstorms could be possible through northern parts of Central and Eastern Ontario during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. Although at this time the exact intensity of these storms and the coverage is unclear. Could also see one or two storms early in the morning at decaying thunderstorms cross into the province from Michigan for areas east of Lake Huron.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Friday, June 11, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible north of Georgian Bay including Manitoulin Island, Sault Ste. Marie and Elliot Lake during the morning on Friday. These storms will be quite weak with heavy rainfall and occasional lightning strikes being the main risks. Two rounds of storms could affect far Northwestern Ontario both in the morning and during the evening on Friday as storms track into the province from Manitoba. Small hail, strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes are all possible with these storms usually in the evening when they are expected to be stronger.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Friday, June 11, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered showers are expected to affect regions around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron during the early morning hours on Friday with the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. Any storms that do develop should remain non-severe with heavy rainfall and lightening the main risks. Later in the day, there could be a few pop-up non-severe thunderstorms to the east of Lake Huron just to the northeast of London during the afternoon. Flash flooding could be an issue yet again as has been the case this week with slow-moving storms although it won’t be that widespread.

SASKATCHEWAN: Significant Severe Weather Risk For Southern Saskatchewan This Afternoon/Evening (Thu, Jun 10, 2021)

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It’s looking more and more likely (based on model data and surface observations) that this afternoon/evening will strengthen into a significant severe weather event in southern Saskatchewan with the risk for very large hail (2-8cm), strong damaging wind gusts (120km/h+), isolated flooding (50-75mm+), intense lightning, and an enhanced risk for tornadoes to develop.

Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop south of Moose Jaw and begin moving slowly to the northeast. More development should occur south of Weyburn and those storms will also track to the northeast, eventually combining into a large cluster of storms further into the evening as the they begin to track to the east, northeast.

As we get further into the evening, this should help mitigate further risk for tornadoes but damaging winds, hail, and flooding could still remain an issue.

We will be live streaming this event later today and to get notified the minute we go live, download our free app Instant Weather and we will be sending out push notifications. This will also allow you get notified the second that Environment Canada issues or ends any alerts for your specific location.

Please have a plan if you’re in the red highlighted region to get to safe place if a dangerous storm is approaching your area.

Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in the US has issued a rare 10% tornado risk that extends right up to Canadian (they do not forecast for Canada, hence why it doesn’t extend past the international border). They have also upgraded to a 4/5 Moderate risk for severe weather just to the south of Saskatchewan including significant wind and hail risks:

Environment Canada has also issued a risk map for this event and they’ve highlighted similar areas with the mention of up to 7cm hail, 110km/h wind gusts, 50mm of rainfall, and a risk for tornadoes:

For up-to-the-second updates during this and any other weather event, follow us on our Facebook pages at:

Saskatchewan Storm Watch (Facebook.com/SaskatchewanStorm)

Instant Weather Saskatchewan (Facebook.com/InstantWeatherSK)

Our newly created Facebook group:

Saskatchewan Storm Watch (Facebook.com/groups/SaskatchewanStorm)

And on Twitter at:

Instant Weather Saskatchewan (@IWeatherSK)

More details ASAP! Be safe today, folks!