Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday, September 8, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning throughout the GTA and into Eastern Ontario. There may also be a few isolated cells later in the day around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, but they should remain non-severe with small hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday, September 7, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through parts of Northern Ontario, but at this point, it appears to be very isolated so an outlook won’t be issued. Stronger storms are possible for areas along the Georgian Bay shoreline which was covered in the Southern Ontario outlook.

Late Season Significant Severe Risk for Southern Ontario on Tuesday (Sep. 7); Destructive Wind Gusts, Large Hail and Tornadoes Possible

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Forecast Discussion

It’s the unofficial end to summer as the Labour Day long weekend is behind us, but Mother Nature apparently missed the memo. We’re watching what could be a quite prolific severe risk across some parts of Southern Ontario on Tuesday. The strongest risk will be found along the Lake Huron shoreline and east of Georgian Bay as a line of storm is expected to develop over Lake Huron during the late afternoon and track through the region during the evening hours.

There is still some uncertainty with this event particularly with timing as there is some data the indicates storms could reach our region later in the day. If this happens, there will be a weaker environment for the storms to take advantage of so they won’t be as severe. The current consensus does seem to favour the earlier solution which is why we’ve chosen to go with a significant severe risk, but this could change by tomorrow so adjustments may be required.

As usual with these events, these storms will come with large hail, destructive wind gusts and even a fairly strong tornado risk earlier in their lifespan. Later in the evening, we do expect the storms to transition into more of a strong wind gust risk as they track to the east. We should see the severe risk dissipate later in the evening although strong non-severe storms are possible through Eastern Ontario during the overnight hours.

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Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday, September 6, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

A few isolated storms are possible through Central and Eastern Ontario during the early morning hours on Monday. However, these storms will be extremely isolated and fairly weak so an outlook isn’t being issued for this event.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, September 5, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Northeastern Ontario during the day on Sunday. These storms should remain quite weak with small hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall the main threats.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, September 5, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Moderate to heavy rainfall will make its way across Southern Ontario on Sunday mainly during the morning and early afternoon. Within this area of rainfall, we expect that there will be some embedded non-severe thunderstorms with the main risk through Central, Eastern and Northeastern Ontario. These storms should remain quite weak with heavy rainfall and a few lightning strikes although not everyone will see the thunderstorm activity.