MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, June 20, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

Southern Manitoba is set to experience what will likely be the most expansive and strongest severe weather risk of the season thus far on Tuesday evening. Storm development is expected to initiate around the Brandon and Portage La Prairie region during the evening hours, with further development anticipated to the northeast throughout the Interlake region.

Based on the projected atmospheric conditions, it is highly likely that these storms will rapidly intensify and reach severe levels, carrying the potential to generate hail as large as baseballs, wind gusts up to 115 km/h, and possibly even a tornado.

Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing, as models indicate later evening development. However, the environment is most favourable earlier in the day, benefitting from daylight heating, which would further enhance the storm intensity.

We contemplated introducing a 'significant' risk zone in South-central Manitoba primarily for the hail threat. However, due to timing considerations, we opted to maintain a strong risk level. Instead, we have designated a hatched region on the map to highlight the areas with the greatest potential for significant hail.

Severe activity is expected to persist into the overnight hours, similar to Monday night. During this time, the Winnipeg region and areas to the east could encounter some severe weather. However, it appears that the overall threat, including the tornado risk, will decrease significantly, transitioning more toward a damaging wind risk.

TORNADO RISK

Regarding the tornado risk, a widespread risk of one or two tornadoes extends from Brandon through Portage La Prairie and into Pegus. Although we contemplated introducing a 'several' risk zone, our confidence is not sufficient, so we chose to indicate the strongest tornado risk with a hatched region in South-central Manitoba. While we are fairly confident that at least one tornado will occur within the hatched region, it is not guaranteed.

Surrounding regions, including Virden, Russell, Dauphin, and Winnipeg, have an isolated tornado risk. However, the likelihood is questionable at best, considering the late timing when the storms are expected to impact these areas.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, June 19, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

A complex severe weather situation is in store for much of Southern Manitoba on Monday, extending into Tuesday morning. Throughout Monday, we anticipate the environment for severe weather to gradually build across the region, starting in the afternoon. However, according to current data, storm development is expected to be delayed until the evening, likely initiating in the southwestern part of the province near the Saskatchewan and American border.

That being said, if models are inaccurate and storm development occurs earlier than anticipated, we could be facing a highly volatile situation. Any storm forming in this potent environment would likely rapidly evolve into a supercell, bringing the potential for significantly large hail exceeding the size of golf balls and destructive wind gusts surpassing 115 km/h.

We seriously considered designating a 'significant' risk zone on our map due to the hail threat, but the confidence in early storm development is too low to support such a classification. Therefore, we are maintaining a 'strong' risk level as the highest threat category for this event.

The severe threat will persist into the overnight and early hours of Tuesday as storms traverse the Dauphin, Ashern, and Pegus regions. Although the tornado risk is relatively low in the morning, the possibility of an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The primary focus will be on large hail and severe wind gusts.

TORNADO RISK

The tornado risk will largely depend on timing. We have identified an expansive risk zone where the potential for one or two tornadoes is expected later tonight and into the early overnight hours. This risk area stretches from Deep Southwestern Manitoba near the international border through Brandon and up into Dauphin.

Similar to the hail risk, we contemplated upgrading the tornado risk to the 'several' category, but timing presents an issue as many of the storms will form after sunset when there is less energy available. Another concern associated with the timing is the possibility of nighttime tornadoes. This risk will persist throughout the overnight period, although the tornado threat will gradually diminish compared to earlier in the evening.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 15, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

Isolated pop-up thunderstorms are possible in Southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. While these storms are expected to remain non-severe, there is the potential for funnel clouds which in rare cases can touch down and become a landspout tornado. The strongest funnel cloud risk is in the Boissevain and Killarney regions.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, June 13, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

A few isolated pop-up storms may develop in Western Manitoba during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. There is an isolated chance that one to two of these storms reach severe levels with quarter-sized hail and damaging wind gusts.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, June 9, 2023

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Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the southeastern corner of Manitoba during the afternoon before they cross into Northwestern Ontario. A few of these storms have the potential to become severe with the main risks being 90+ km/h wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. There could also be a risk of funnel clouds which in rare cases can touch down and become a landspout tornado.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 8, 2023

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in Western and Central Manitoba on Thursday. Multiple isolated cells are expected to develop during the afternoon and could present severe risks including 100+ km/h wind gusts, hail up to toonie size and an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

The strongest risk is just to the east of the Saskatchewan border and into areas north of the Interlake region. This includes Virden, Brandon, Russell and Dauphin. An isolated severe threat exists further east in including Treherne, Neepawa, Ashern and Peguis.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, June 7, 2023

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Isolated thunderstorm activity is expected across much of Southern Manitoba on Wednesday. It will be more concentrated in Southwestern Manitoba along with the Interlake region. Some of these storms could reach severe levels with 90+ km/h wind gusts and up to quarter-sized hail. The environment is also favourable for the development of funnel clouds and maybe even a landspout.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, June 6, 2023

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Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across much of Southern Manitoba on Tuesday. Some storms, especially in northwestern Manitoba and the northern Interlake region could approach severe levels. The primary concern with these storms will be up to quarter-sized hail and 90+ km/h hour wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but the environment is questionable regarding the tornado risk.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, June 5, 2023

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Isolated pop-up thunderstorms are possible in Western Manitoba along the Saskatchewan border on Monday. These storms are expected to remain non-severe, but the environment is favourable for the development of funnel clouds and maybe even a landspout tornado.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, June 4, 2023

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: We have expanded the isolated severe threat to include most of Southern Manitoba. While these pop-up storms will be extremely localized, they could bring the potential for severe hail and funnel clouds.

Pop-up thunderstorms are possible in much of Central and Southeastern Manitoba on Sunday afternoon and evening. A few of these storms could become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Funnel clouds and maybe even a landspout can’t be ruled out.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, June 2, 2023

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Scattered pop-up thunderstorms are expected across Manitoba on Friday. While these storms should remain non-severe for the most part, we could see an isolated severe storm in Western Manitoba near the Saskatchewan border. The environment is also favourable for the development of funnel clouds and maybe even a landspout.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 1, 2023

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Isolated pop-up thunderstorms are possible across Southern Manitoba on Thursday during the afternoon and evening. A few of these storms, especially in Southeastern Manitoba near the Ontario border could feature marginally severe threats including 90+ km/h wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. While the tornado threat is fairly low, it can’t be completely ruled out.