Thunderstorm Outlook

NOTE: The tornado risk zone outlines the region with the highest probability of tornadoes, but tornadoes may occur outside of the zone.

Forecast Discussion

Issued: SUNDAY, JUNE 7, 2020 - 1:15PM

The strongest thunderstorm risk of the year up to this point is upon us, especially for isolated areas in extreme southeastern Manitoba. Other areas besides the southeast that we have highlighted in yellow may see very isolated severe thunderstorms but it is possible that many areas will be completely missed and may see zero activity today and tonight. These storms will bring with them the risk for damaging wind gusts 90km/h - 110km/h+, 3-5cm hail (golf ball), isolated flooding, and the risk for one or two tornadoes with a significant tornado not entirely out of the question, especially in extreme southeastern Manitoba.

A chance of isolated pop-up storms are possible this afternoon and this risk will continue into the evening and possibly overnight hours. However, the further into the overnight we get, the more the overall tornado and severe weather risk will diminish. Frequent lightning and very isolated flooding isn’t off the table either, especially if some areas see more than one thunderstorm in a row. We extended this risk further north as the wind gust risk is strong for most of Manitoba.

Thunderstorm Threatcast

Environment Canada has also created a forecast for today’s risk and they wrote:

Fast moving upper level disturbances tracking into the area from the southwest may trigger marginally severe thunderstorms over east central Saskatchewan this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise, scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected for much of eastern Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

• Area(s): Southern and central Manitoba

• Timing: Sunday late afternoon, evening, and overnight

• Threats: Wind gusts to 110 km/h, hail 3-5 cm, and heavy rain

Significant moisture and instability will move into southern Manitoba from the United States today. While there is a slight chance of thunderstorm initiation in the late afternoon hours, it is much more probable for large scale development to occur in the evening hours and/or for thunderstorms to track into the area from North Dakota. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and heavy rain are likely with any well-developed thunderstorm. Most activity looks to move east out of the area overnight, but fast moving upper level disturbances will continue to track into Manitoba from the southwest and will maintain a threat of severe weather into Monday morning.