Thunderstorm Outlook

NOTE: The tornado risk zone outlines the region with the highest probability of tornadoes, but tornadoes may occur outside of the zone.

Forecast Discussion

Issued: WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17, 2020 - 11:15AM

Another significant weather risk is upon some populated areas of Manitoba, especially for those in the southeast. Other areas besides the southeast that we have highlighted in yellow may see very isolated severe thunderstorms but it is possible that many areas to the west will be completely missed and may see zero activity today and tonight. These storms will bring with them the risk for damaging wind gusts 90km/h - 110km/h+, 2-5cm hail (golf ball), significant flooding, and the risk for one or two tornadoes with a significant tornado not entirely out of the question, especially in the red area on our map.

Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and eventually this will turn into a large clustered of severe thunderstorms towards the evening hours. This risk will continue late into the evening for some and possibly into overnight hours for areas closer to the Ontario border. The flooding risk is fairly substantial, especially for areas that see more than one storm in a row, and especially for areas in central Manitoba based on the model data showing several inches for some areas. Please be safe in the path of these storms folks! - Adam

Thunderstorm Threatcast

Environment Canada has also created a forecast for today’s risk and they wrote:

• Area(s): Southern into central Manitoba

• Timing: Wednesday afternoon and evening

• Threats: Southeast: Torrential rainfall with local accumulations of 50-100 mm, hail 3 to 5 cm, and winds gusts of 100 km/h or higher. Elsewhere: Hail 2 to 4 cm and wind gusts of 90 km/h.

A slow moving cold front will trigger thunderstorms in the afternoon over a very humid southeastern Manitoba. There is the threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts early in storm development, but as thunderstorms grow more widespread threats will shift more towards damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall. Local rain amounts well in excess of 50 mm are possible in southeast Manitoba. Elsewhere over southern and central Manitoba, isolated thunderstorms may develop behind the front; while generally non-severe, a few strong thunderstorms will be possible.