48 Hour Rainfall Outlook
Valid: Monday, April 13, 2020
Forecaster: Brennen Perry
rainfall outlook map
Forecast Discussion
Issued: Sunday, April 12, 2020 - 7:00PM
A strong low-pressure system will move across Southern Ontario overnight Sunday and into Monday bringing heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind gusts to the region. Rainfall will begin just after midnight for areas around Lake Erie and encompass much of Southern Ontario by mid-morning on Monday. Some heavier bands of precipitation are expected to develop through the Niagara region and extending along the northern Lake Ontario shoreline (Oshawa, Cobourg and Peterborough etc.) during the morning hours. Embedded thunderstorms can’t be ruled out along with the possibility of some flooding in areas that are prone to flash flooding. Rainfall will start to clear later in the day on Monday although the risk of scattered showers will continue until the late afternoon.
The heaviest accumulation is expected along the Lake Ontario and Erie shoreline where there is the potential for between 30-50mm in the Niagra region and parts of the northern Lake Ontario shoreline. Note this is highly dependent on the chance for thunderstorms along with the heavier pockets of precipitation and as such, some areas may see a lot less rain than shown in our forecast. Generally, amounts for the rest of Southern Ontario will range from 10-20mm with over 20mm possible for the GTA and into parts of Eastern Ontario. There will be less precipitation further to the west around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay where less than 10mm of accumulation is expected at this point.
