Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid: Thursday, July 16, 2020
Forecaster: Brennen Perry
Issued: Thursday, July 16, 2020 - 1:55PM
Thunderstorm outlook map
MOBILE TIP: YOU CAN ZOOM INTO THE MAP BY CLICKING ON IT. THE MAP WILL OPEN IN A NEW TAB THAT IS EASILY ZOOMABLE.
NOTE: The tornado risk zone outlines the region with the highest probability of tornadoes, but tornadoes may occur outside of the zone.
Timing |
Southwestern: 2PM - 6PM
|
|---|
Not sure what region you are in? Click here for a map showing the regions across Southern Ontario. Northeastern Ontario is north of North Bay (not shown on map).
Thunderstorm Threatcast
Thunderstorm Confidence |
High (75%) |
|---|---|
|
Severe Confidence |
Moderate (50%) |
Tornadoes |
Isolated |
Max Wind Gusts |
90+ kmh | 56+ mph |
Max Hail Size |
Quarter |
Max 24-hr Rainfall |
~100 mm | ~4" |
Forecast Discussion
Thunderstorms are expected across Southern Ontario on Thursday with a few zones that have the potential to see those storms become severe with flash flooding as the main risk along with other severe threats such as large hail, strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado. We’re closely monitoring the Niagara region which continues to be our main area of interest as strong storms will likely develop along the American shoreline of Lake Erie and slowly track to the northeast and clipping the Niagara area late this afternoon. The environment in this area would be favourable for tornadic development if everything comes together although it could just slightly track further south and stay stateside. These storms will track over Lake Ontario and may make their way into the region along the Northern Lake Ontario shoreline, but the main threat will be more focused on flash flooding with over 100+mm of rain possible in a few hours during the evening.
Another zone stretching from the Northern GTA and through Central Ontario (especially east of Georgian Bay) and into regions along the Quebec border also could see the development of slow-moving storms late this afternoon extending into the evening. The slow-moving nature of these storms will present a very high flooding threat although other severe modes such as hail, wind and tornadoes can’t be fully ruled out. All severe activity will end around midnight although non-severe thunderstorms and rain could continue into Friday morning.
