Plunge Into Winter After Record-Breaking Wind Storm; Snow Squalls East of Georgian Bay & Lake Huron to Bring Up to 15cm on Monday

As the wind storm that Brough wind gusts up to 120-140km/h to some parts of Southern Ontario winds down, the active weather doesn’t end for those in the typical snowbelts. This is a result of colder air flowing in behind the system that brought us the wind storm causing lake effect snow to develop off mainly Georgian Bay although scattered flurries may also affect regions east of Lake Huron. We’re already seeing some development off the lakes Sunday evening although it’s fairly disorganized and mostly coming down as rain. It will change as we head into the overnight and through Monday as temperatures drop and the bands become more organized.

We’re expecting two main bands to develop off Georgian Bay early Monday morning with one stretching from Britt and inland through Burk’s Falls/Kearney. The other band will cut across the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula and inland through South Muskoka affecting locations like Port Carling, Bracebridge and Haliburton. The band will be quite relentless locking into those areas all day Monday and not weakening until late in the evening. Now, it’s important to mention that temperatures will likely be slightly above the freezing mark for most areas so while snow will be falling it might not easily accumulate. The heavy wet snow will certainly make for hazardous driving conditions due to near-zero visibility through the affected region. Be sure to drive according to the conditions and leave plenty of time to get to your destination.

As far as accumulation, this is a tricky one because as we said, some of the snow could melt on contact due to the above freezing temperatures. This would reduce the expected accumulation somewhat although at some point the snow will begin to accumulate. We believe there are two zones including Burk’s Falls, Kearney, Port Carling, Bracebridge and Haliburton that could see as much as 12-20cm (it will likely be closer to the lower end of that range) by the end of Monday.

Surrounding regions including Sprucedale, Gravenhurst, Tobermory and the higher elevations south of Georgian Bay (Meaford. Flesherton etc.) have the potential to see between 6-12cm of snowfall accumulation. The rest of the regions east of Georgian Bay and away from the shoreline east of Lake Huron can expect between 2-6cm of accumulation. Almost all of Southern Ontario can expect to see a few flurries sometime during the day on Monday but there will be little to no accumulation outside of the snowbelts.

The threat of snow squall activity won’t end Monday night though! We’ll see the squalls weaken substantially late Monday as the wind direction shifts causing the remaining weakened squall to move southward through northern Simcoe County. This is why we have the Orillia and Midland region picking up between 2-6cm which will mostly come during the evening. Squalls could redevelop again Tuesday morning but will affect regions south of Georgian Bay and northeast of Lake Huron (Kincardine, Owen Sound etc.). We’ll continue to monitor that and issue a forecast if necessary.