White Christmas Almost Certain for Central and Eastern Ontario; Green Christmas Possible for GTA and Southwestern Ontario

There was hope that the snowfall over the weekend across much of Southern Ontario might mean that a White Christmas was in the cards this year. However, it appears that Mother Nature will dash any hope of a White Christmas with a push of milder temperatures on Christmas Eve for Southwestern Ontario and the GTA/Niagara Region. There is good news that the cold air should hold on across Central and Eastern Ontario making a White Christmas almost certain this year for those regions.

In the lead-up to Christmas, we’re looking at the chance of some snow both on Wednesday with some lake effect snow around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay and a quick system late Thursday. The system on Thursday will likely deliver around 5cm of snow to parts of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe. It’s quite possible that many locations even with a very low chance of a White Christmas will wake up to snow on the ground on Christmas Eve.

Don’t let that trick you though! Warmer air will slowly work its way into the province later on Friday (Christmas Eve) pushing the temperature above the freezing mark for areas around Lake Ontario, Erie and Huron along with Deep Southwestern Ontario. Some locations like Windsor may flirt with double-digit highs on Christmas Day! As a result, any snow that was on the ground on Christmas Eve morning will likely be gone by the time you go to bed. There is a chance that some of the higher elevations northwest of the GTA including Orangeville could still hold onto the accumulation long enough to still allow for a White Christmas, but it’s questionable at best. As we mentioned, the cold air will put up a fight across Central and Eastern Ontario so any existing snow accumulation should be maintained going into Christmas morning.

It should be noted that there is some uncertainty in this forecast as a potential system might affect Southern Ontario late on Christmas Eve. At this point, it appears that it could bring a mixed bag of precipitation depending on the track. Rain is looking likely for Southwestern Ontario and along the shoreline of Lake Ontario/Erie. Further north, we may see a freezing rain threat around Lake Simcoe and some accumulating snow through Central and Eastern Ontario.

Again, any shift in the track of this storm either to the north or south may significantly change the White Christmas probability. We might even see a ‘true’ White Christmas through Central and Eastern Ontario with snow coming down as you wake up Christmas morning. This is why a zone around Georgian Bay and extending through Lake Simcoe has only a 75% chance of a White Christmas as they could see some mixing from this system.

More details on this system will follow in the coming days including our final White Christmas forecast to be posted on Christmas Eve (Friday). Check back soon!