Freezing Rain Could Threaten Christmas Celebrations in Central and Eastern Ontario Between Friday and Saturday With Possible Power Outages

It could be quite the icy start to Christmas across much of Central and Eastern Ontario as a system is set to move through Southern Ontario starting late Christmas Eve. For those in Southwestern Ontario and around the GTA, the precipitation will come down as rain which will wash away any hope of a White Christmas.

The problematic area will be around the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands and into Central/Eastern Ontario where some slightly colder temperatures will lock in at the surface with warmer temperatures above the surface. An hour or two of freezing rain is possible through Orangeville and Simcoe County late on Christmas Eve before it transitions over to regular rain after midnight. However, the main event will be over Central and Eastern Ontario where we expect a fairly expansive band of freezing rain to develop roughly to the northeast of Lake Simcoe and into the Ottawa Valley during the late evening.

The freezing rain risk will continue overnight and into Christmas Morning as current data suggests that the cold air will be quite stubborn so the freezing rain won’t switch as quickly as we see with most events. Some areas particularly around the Bancroft, Kingston and Brockville area could experience 6-12 hours of periodic freezing rain from Friday evening to Saturday afternoon. We will finally see the freezing rain taper off as we head into the afternoon hours, but some drizzle may linger into the evening. Note that areas around the Quebec border including the Ottawa Valley could see some ice pellets mix in which would reduce the freezing rain threat.

There is some concern with this event in particular as it won’t be followed by a warm-up or rain afterwards which helps melt any ice accretion. The only area this will occur is along the Georgian Bay shoreline and around Lake Simcoe. Instead, the freezing rain risk will only come to an end for more areas once the precipitation moves out during the afternoon. Temperatures will remain around the freezing mark and we expect even colder temperatures to flow in behind the system late Saturday into Sunday. This will mean that any ice accretion will remain on tree branches and power lines for several days and could cause power outages throughout the weekend as the branches and power lines buckle under the weight of the ice.

If you are travelling on Christmas Day in the affected area, you should be prepared for some potential icy road conditions. And be aware of the risk for power outages that may affect dinner plans on Christmas Day. However, don’t panic as the expected ice accretion is far from significant so hopefully any outages should be quickly restored. This won’t be anywhere close to an ice storm, but the timing makes it potentially impactful.