Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday, July 13, 2021

/
MAP UPDATED - July 13 @ 1 PM

MAP UPDATED - July 13 @ 1 PM

Forecast Discussion

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to affect Southern Ontario starting late Tuesday morning and continuing through the day right into the late evening hours. The environment is favourable for some of these storms to become severe throughout parts of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario. Main risks with these storms include wind gusts over 90km/h and large hail perhaps as large as toonie size (~3cm).

Current data shows several discrete strong cells developing somewhere through the Owen Sound-Meaford-Midland corridor during the early afternoon and tracking to the northeast through Northern Simcoe County and Southern Muskoka. They will further strengthen as they track into the Haliburton, Bancroft and Renfrew areas where there is even the potential for one or two tornadoes.

Flooding will also be a huge issue with these storms especially with some locations seeing multiple rounds of storms over the next 12-24 hours. The highest rainfall totals are expected to the east of Georgian Bay where some localized pockets of 50-100mm are quite possible.

More storms could develop over Michigan and Lake Huron tracking into Southwestern Ontario towards the dinner hour and early evening. The exact severity of these storms is unclear due to the timing and storm mode, but some strong wind gusts and isolated severe gusts are a fair bet.

Another area of concern is over Lake Erie and the Niagara region which could also see some storm development late in the afternoon before they track across Lake Ontario and into upstate New York. They could also clip the Kingston and Prince Edward County area depending on how far north they make it.

The risk of severe storms should come to an end by midnight, but non-severe thunderstorms from the decaying storms could continue overnight and into Wednesday morning.

We'd like to thank our sponsor for this forecast; Naughty Spots PhoDography!

"If you seek heart-squeezing moments frozen in time of your furry companions you’ve come to the right place! Naughty Spots PhoDography lovingly captures the personality of furry companions all over Central Ontario. Mention seeing this ad on Instant Weather Ontario/Ontario Storm Watch for 10% off your first shoot!"

Visit www.naughtyspotsphodography.com for details!