SASKATCHEWAN: Environment Canada is Forecasting a "High" Risk for Severe Thunderstorms With the Potential for Tornadoes, 2-7cm Hail, and 90-120km/h Damaging Wind Gusts (Thurs, Jul 22, 2021)
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Environment Canada has forecasted a "High" risk in orange, which is a 3 out 4 on their threat level scale and highlighted in orange on their forecast map. This risk comes with the potential for isolated tornadoes, 90-120km/h damaging wind gusts, and 2-7cm damaging hail.
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Below is what Environment Canada wrote in their forecast. Something to note, their forecast is extremely technical so we've included the important items that are easiest to understand. If you'd like to read the full scientific forecast, we have included it further down the page:
"Significant Weather Discussion...
...Low pressure crossing Saskatchewan today should serve as trigger for severe thunderstorm development this afternoon through this evening, and into the overnight hours for Manitoba...
...Supercell development seems very likely this afternoon, with large hail... perhaps up to baseball size... and damaging wind gusts to 120 km/h associated with the strongest storms.
...Furthermore, strongly veering wind profiles in the lower levels support a tornado risk with any storms that develop in a locally favourable environment...
... Severe storms should be able to continue throughout the night as they move through Manitoba, although the severe threat should end over southern Manitoba with the loss of daytime heating. The tornadic threat should likewise diminish sharply after sunset..."
For those wondering, these "prototype" maps are not yet available on EC's website. However, they are posted on Environment Canada's twitter account at @ECCCWeatherSK. These forecasts and maps are issued by the same Environment Canada meteorologists that issue all Watches and Warnings for Saskatchewan. They're also temporarily hosted by the University of Manitoba here:
https://umanitoba.ca/faculties/environment/envirogeog/weather/conv_otlk/
If you're interested in the full scientific forecast, here it is:
"SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT THURSDAY JULY 22 2021.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENTS OUT FOR MUCH OF MANITOBA, PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND PARTS OF ALBERTA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...UPPER LOW NEARING THE ALBERTA ELBOW WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM NE ALBERTA TO SW SASKATCHEWAN.
DISCUSSION...
EASTERN PRAIRIES...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SK TODAY SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS OF 18-20 OVERNIGHT AND A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. COOLING ALOFT AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 30 DESTABILIZE THINGS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PROGGED SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-50 KNOTS SHEAR. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. TRANSVERSE BANDING DENOTING JET STREAK NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN MONTANA WHICH SHOULD MORE INTO SOUTHERN SK THIS AFTERNOON GIVING ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT/LIFT. FURTHERMORE, STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN A LOCALLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT.
GIVEN FAVOURABLE JET DYNAMICS, SHEAR, AND THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW, SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE THROUGH MANITOBA, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET.
WESTERN PRAIRIES/NWT...HIGH PM2.5 VALUES REPORTED NEAR CANMORE AND CAROLINE. WILL SEE HOW THE SMOKE LOOKS WHEN DAYTIME SATELLITE IMAGES COME IN THIS MORNING BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SMOKE TO EXPAND NEAR CALGARY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SMOKE LOOKS THUNDERSTORM FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED ON THE MORNING UPDATE.
GOOD AREA OF PVA IN SOUTH CENTRAL BC TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE AFTERNOON THE 500 JET RUNS FROM YYC-YCT-WJH AROUND 60 KNOTS. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO POOL SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CALGARY WITH MLCAPES ALONG THAT AXIS NEAR 1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER EARLY WITH THE COLD 500 MB TROUGH MOVING IN. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH 2 TO 4 CM HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. SMOKE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE SVR RISK AREA IS NEAR THE CURRENT AREA OF HIGH PM VALUES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR GREAT SLAVE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR THE UPPER LOW AND VERY SLOW MOVING. SLIGHT RISK OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA.
EASTERN ARCTIC..NIL SIG WX.
END/FULTON/WIELKI"
More details ASAP!
