Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday, August 10, 2021
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Forecast Discussion
A very active weather day is expected across Southern Ontario on Tuesday with the risk of thunderstorms throughout the day. It will begin with some thunderstorms tracking into Southwestern Ontario from Michigan during the morning hours and track towards the GTA by late morning. Current data suggests these storms shouldn't be overly strong with mainly a non-severe threat including strong wind gusts, small hail and heavy downpours. There could be a very questionable severe risk with the morning storms, but it’s fairly unlikely at this point.
Another round of storms this time in the form of isolated pop-up cells are expected during the afternoon and evening hours mainly through Central and Eastern Ontario. A few storms could develop as far south as Grand Bend and track through the Niagara region. These storms will be quite isolated so not everyone will see them, but a few of them could reach severe levels. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts (90+ km/h) and large hail up to quarter or toonie size. As for the tornado risk, there isn’t a particular area of focus although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out somewhere in the isolated severe risk zone. Even if we don’t see a tornado, the conditions will be ideal for some funnel clouds with these storms and maybe even a landspout.
The storm risk should come to an end by the end of the evening on Tuesday.
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