Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday, August 11, 2021
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Map Updated - Wed, Aug 11, 2021 (1:00PM)
Updated Forecast Discussion
After reviewing the latest data, we believe there is the potential for significant severe storms later this afternoon and into the evening for parts of Southern Ontario.
The strongest risk for storms exists along the Lake Huron shoreline and around Georgian Bay. This area could see wind gusts over 100km/h and maybe evening strong along with large hail and heavy rainfall. A few tornadoes may also be possible as the environment is certainly favourable for some rotating storms.
There is still some uncertainty on the exact storm mode which will determine the main risks associated with the storms. Some models are showing a squall line developing over Lake Huron with embedded pockets of destructive wind gusts as it cuts across Southern Ontario this evening. While other models are favouring more isolated cells which could bring some large hail and a tornado threat along with damaging wind gusts.
Either way, it looks like the weather could become quite dangerous later today. This is the day to be weather aware and make sure you have a plan in place should you need to seek shelter from severe weather. These storms will be moving quite fast so you may only have a few minutes to react.
Old Forecast Discussion
A very unsettled day is expected throughout Southern Ontario on Wednesday with the risk for some quite strong thunderstorms. The storms will come in multiple rounds starting with some in the morning and more later in the day through the afternoon and evening. There is some uncertainty about the exact location of where these storms will develop so this forecast is more dependent on the environment and not everyone will see that severe weather.
Current indications suggest a line of storms may form over Lake Huron during the early to mid-morning and track through areas east of Lake Huron and into Central Ontario towards the later morning hours. The morning storms should remain below severe levels, but a few wind gusts near 90km/h can’t be ruled out. As we usually see with severe events with morning convection, they can either make or break the storm risk later in the day. It will be no different for Wednesday as if these morning storms don’t clear out until early in the afternoon then it might reduce the risk later in the day as daylight heating will have a shorter timeframe to build up. At this point it doesn’t look like this will be an issue though good to keep in mind that it’s not guaranteed.
A few isolated storms are expected to pop up through parts of Central Ontario (especially around Lake Simcoe and Georgian Bay) during the late afternoon. These storms could present all severe threats including large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. One or two tornadoes can’t be ruled out either anywhere north of a line from Kincardine through to Lake Simcoe and up into Renfrew. The strongest tornado risk is to the north of Georgian Bay in Northeastern Ontario along with the Muskoka, Simcoe County and Kawartha Lakes regions.
These isolated storms will develop ahead of a line of storms expected to strengthen over Northern Michigan as it tracks across Lake Huron by the evening. This line could bring another round of severe weather with the focus on damaging wind gusts towards the late evening following a similar track as the morning storms. There is also a storm risk down in Deep Southwestern Ontario as another line of storms tracks into the region from Michigan during the evening.
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