Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, August 29, 2021
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FORECAST UPDATED - Sun, Aug. 29 @ 4:50 PM
UPDATED DISCUSSION
We've reviewed the latest data and have made some small adjustments to our map. The main one is expanding the severe risk zone to include more of Southwestern Ontario including London and Woodstock. Some models are showing some strong storm development in this area over the next few hours. Any isolated storms that we see develop late this afternoon could bring large hail, damaging wind gusts and even some tornadoes.
Already seeing a line of storms starting to form over Northern Michigan and about to track across Lake Huron. This line will likely bring some damaging wind gusts to areas along the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline later today and into the evening. A few tornadoes can't be ruled out either with the strongest risk through Northeastern Ontario, but still strong enough in Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario to see a brief spin up.
Forecast Discussion (OLD)
A very active weather day is expected across Southern Ontario with widespread severe risk during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. The environment is favourable for any storms that develop to become quite intense will all severe hazards (large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall). Current data suggests we’ll see some isolated pop-up storms during the afternoon along the Lake Huron shoreline and into Central Ontario around Lake Simcoe. These storms are where we have the risk for a few tornadoes along with very large hail.
We’re also expecting an organized line of severe storms to move across Lake Huron during the early evening stretching from Northeastern Ontario and down into Sarnia. This will track to the east bringing widespread wind gusts although there is some uncertainty about the coverage and severity of this second round of storms. The storm risk should come to an end around the midnight hour as the line of storms begins to weaken late in the evening.
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