Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Saturday, January 22 - Sunday, January 23, 2022

Forecast Discussion

A weak system is currently sliding across Southern Ontario bringing widespread snowfall to the region on Saturday afternoon. It won’t result in that much accumulation with a few centimetres of fresh snow at most. However, this system will help start the lake effect snow machine throughout the snowbelt region around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay late Saturday.

Scattered lake effect snow is expected to develop just after the dinner hour on Saturday which will give way to a more focused and intense snow squall overnight and into Sunday morning. Current indications suggest that this band will stretch across the Bruce Penisula and come inland off Georgian Bay around Meaford, Wasaga Beach and north of Barrie. This band isn’t expected to stay stationary for very long with maybe 2-4 hours of heavy snow in this area before it shifts southward.

By the late morning, the band will have drifted southward and start to affect the Kincardine and Saugeen Shores region off Lake Huron. A secondary area of lake effect snow may also develop along the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay affecting the Meaford and Collingwood area with additional snowfall. We expect that the lake effect activity will start to fizzle out through the afternoon, but some snow may still hug the shoreline of Lake Huron into the evening.

Between Saturday and Sunday, we’re looking at snowfall totals ranging from 8-16cm for much of Grey-Bruce counties and into Central Simcoe County to the northwest of Barrie. Do note that some locations may get locally up to 20cm within the strongest snow squall, but it will be extremely localized and most areas will be closer to 10cm. The rest of the snowbelt around Georgian Bay including Muskoka and northward into Northeastern Ontario can expect 4-8cm (locally up to 10cm) with most of the snow coming late Saturday and early Sunday.

The actual City of Barrie should escape the bulk of the snow from the lake effect activity although a few brief shots of snow as the bands shift around could deliver up to 5-10cm of snow to the city. Higher amounts are expected in the northern section of the city. We’re looking at less than 4cm for the rest of Southern Ontario mainly this afternoon and evening from the system snow sweeping across the region. More snow is possible on Monday with the threat of additional squalls along with some widespread snow late Monday into Tuesday. More details on that soon!