Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Monday, January 24, 2022

Forecast Discussion

An Alberta Clipper combined with lake effect snow northeast of Georgian Bay will bring widespread accumulating snowfall to Southern Ontario on Monday. Thankfully, it won’t be anywhere near as strong as last Monday’s major snowstorm. The snow is expected to start early Monday morning off Georgian Bay as lake effect snow and localized squalls develop off Lake Huron, stretching across the Bruce Penisula and into regions just to the north of Parry Sound into North Bay. These squalls could be quite intense at times and have the potential to bring rapid snowfall accumulation and near-zero visibility mainly during the morning and afternoon on Monday.

Later in the morning, widespread light to moderate snowfall associated with an Alberta Clipper will move in from Michigan. This will affect Southwestern Ontario first and slowly spread eastwards throughout the afternoon. This clipper will be fairly moisture starved so it will be very dependent on lake enhancement to deliver more than a few centimetres of snow further to the east. As such, there will be less of an impact on Eastern Ontario away from the lakes. Snowfall will come to an end by the late evening, but some lingering lake effect snow could continue into early Tuesday off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron

The heaviest totals will be found in the Bruce Penisula and regions northeast of Georgian Bay which could see 12-20cm (locally 25cm) of snow combined from the squalls and system. Much of Southwestern Ontario where the system will have more moisture to work with can expect general accumulation between 6-12cm. There’s also a zone north of Lake Ontario including Newmarket and Peterborough that could see locally close to 10cm thanks to lake enhancement off the northern shores of Lake Ontario.

The rest of Southern Ontario aside from the Ottawa Valley will pick up around 2-4cm of fresh snow with a few locations pushing close to 5-6cm depending on the exact strength of the system. As we mentioned, regions around the Quebec border in Eastern Ontario including Ottawa will likely pick up less than 2cm as the system will be quite disorganized by the time it reaches that area.