Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Tuesday, January 25, 2022

IMPORTANT: This forecast covers ADDITIONAL snowfall for Tuesday (starting 12am) - this doesn’t cover any snow on Monday.

Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and localized intense squalls are expected to continue overnight and into Tuesday for areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. The focus of this snow will be on the eastern Lake Huron shoreline from Saugeen Shores to Goderich. There is some disagreement between the models on the exact placement of this band which will determine who gets hit the hardest. We do believe the band will shift around somewhat and should limit the overall accumulation in a particular location. However, if it does lock in for several hours then the potential is there for upwards of 30cm of snow by the end of Tuesday somewhere in that ‘Up to 30cm’ zone on our map.

We will also see some lake effect snow off the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay which will affect the Collingwood and Barrie area mainly during the morning hours. It appears to be quite weak and not as organized as the Lake Huron squall and it will weaken before noon. As such, the most we expect in this area is 15cm of snow mainly closer to the Georgian Bay shoreline. The actual city of Barrie should be closer to the 5-10cm range depending on how far inland the snow can get. The snow squalls off Lake Huron should weaken late Tuesday evening but could linger into the overnight and early Wednesday morning.

Please note as we say with every lake effect event, squalls are one of the hardest weather events to forecast due to how localized and intense they can be. This means one location could get 50cm while just down the road there is barely a flake to be seen. The best we can do is show which regions are most likely to see up to a certain amount based on the duration and intensity of the squall. It just depends on where this band sets up that determines who sees those significant amounts. Most locations within each zone shouldn’t come anywhere near the stated maximum which is the intended goal. We’d rather show you the potential so that you’re prepared for the worst.