Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, February 11, 2022

Forecast Discussion

An Alberta Clipper is expected to slide across Southern Ontario on Friday bringing accumulating snow to some parts of the region while others around Lake Ontario and Erie see a messy mix of wet snow and rain. Precipitation will begin to work into the province from Michigan sometime during the mid to late morning hours on Friday starting with those in Southwestern Ontario and spreading eastward later in the morning.

For those in Central and much of Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron, it should mainly come down as snow with limited mixing as temperatures will be near the freezing mark. Slightly warmer temperatures in Deep Southwestern Ontario, around the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario (except the higher elevations around Peterborough and Bancroft) should help limit any accumulation with any snow melting on contract.

The heaviest snow will be found during the late morning and early afternoon with it slowly becoming more scattered later in the day. It should be finished by the evening for the most part except for regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which could see some scattered lake effect snow continuing into Saturday morning.

Snowfall totals from this system will be highly variable and highly dependent on temperatures. We do believe that slightly colder temperatures along with some lake enhancement off Georgian Bay could push totals into the 6-12cm range from the Muskoka-Parry Sound region. Northeastern Ontario will also see higher totals with around 10cm expected for Sudbury and North Bay. Outside of these regions, we are looking around maybe a few centimetres of accumulation and that’s even pushing it since there will be a lot of melting. Very little accumulation is expected in areas around Lake Ontario and Erie which will see rain mix in or fully switch over for a few hours in the case of the Niagara region.

Aside from the snow, a very sharp drop in temperatures is possible overnight into Saturday morning which could pose a flash freeze hazard. We highly suggest clearing any snow that accumulates by late Friday as it will be wet and easy to move. Once we go into Saturday, any leftover snow will freeze solid and become difficult to move. Slippery road conditions are also likely throughout the early part of Saturday so be sure to drive with caution.