Overnight, Morning, Afternoon & Evening Severe Thunderstorm Potential (Sun, July 24, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Overnight: An overnight MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) of severe thunderstorms is likely overnight in deep southwestern Ontario. It’s expected to begin sometime after midnight and could cause damaging wind gusts, small hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning. A brief tornado isn’t entirely out of the question in Essex County, Chatham-Kent regions, etc. Having said all of this, some models suggest this particular MCS storm system could weaken as it reaches our region. We’ll be watching closely!

Morning: Another line of storms will move after the first round and this show should up between 4am and 7am, again moving in from Michigan into southwestern Ontario. This morning line could potentially be stronger than the overnight MSC and the same risks will be present from damaging winds, torrential rain, hail, lightning, isolated flooding and again, an isolated tornado cannot be entire ruled out.

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Afternoon: We should see widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon through a large swath of the region. There will be a mix of non-severe and severe storms and some of the strongest signals could be northwest, north, and northeast of Lake Ontario. It could get quite messy with widespread precipitation in many locations. All severe risks remain on the table though this period.

Evening: Some data is suggesting the strongest storms of the day could arrive in the evening hours (6pm - 9pm) in southwestern Ontario and push east into areas like Hamilton and parts of the GTHA and Niagara.

Tornado Risk: We’ve only covered the orange (3) areas in a tornado risk on our map as that area has the best chance. However, an isolated tornado occurring in the yellow (2) isolated severe risk areas cannot be entirely ruled out.

IMPORTANT: We’ll be with you every step of the way and we may or may not livestream via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch. Regardless of if we decide to stream or not, we’ll be tracking every developing storm and notifying those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website. However, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately. As we have to enter the subscriptions on our website in by hand, we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes before we get tied up with tracking these storms.

More details ASAP!