ONTARIO: Relief From Extreme Heat in Sight With Severe Thunderstorm Risk on Monday
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After a sweltering weekend across Southern Ontario with the humidex making it feel into the 40s for many locations, we are expecting a welcoming cooldown on Monday. This is courtesy of a cold front that will sweep across the region later Monday which will also bring the risk of thunderstorms. For the most part, these storms should remain non-severe, however, the environment is favourable for a few severe storms to affect parts of Southwestern Ontario and into the K/W and Hamilton regions.
Current weather guidance shows the potential for a cluster of cells to develop over Lake Huron during the mid to late afternoon hours. These storms will slowly track to the southeast making landfall along the shoreline between Goderich and Sarnia. From damaging wind gusts and large hail to maybe even an isolated tornado, all types of storm threats can't be ruled out. The tornado risk is the strongest along the shoreline, particularly around the Grand Bend area, but this will depend on the exact strength of the environment at the time and where the storms make landfall. As we head into the evening hours, these storms will begin to transition into more of a wind and flash flooding risk for Windsor, Chatham, K/W and Hamilton as they continue to track to the southeast.
A few clusters of thunderstorms are also expected to develop through Central and Eastern Ontario during the afternoon and evening hours, but they should remain non-severe with heavy rainfall as the main threat. For the GTA and Niagara region, they will see some thunderstorm activity late in the evening from the Lake Huron cells, but they should be much weaker by this point and will pose much less of a threat compared to earlier in the day.
Please note that this forecast is based on the current data and is subject to change as we get closer to the event. While we try our best to be as accurate as possible, forecasting severe weather is tricky and it’s impossible to be perfect. We will continue to go over the latest data and may make adjustments to the forecast sometime early on Monday. Stay tuned and check back for the latest information!
IMPORTANT: If storms start developing, we will likely be live-streaming via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch as we track every developing storm and notify those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website, however, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately as we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes via our website due to the fact that we have to enter those in manually.
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