Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, March 11 - Saturday, March 12, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

The week will come to an end on a snowy note across Sothern Ontario as widespread light to moderate snow moves through the region starting Friday morning. This push of moisture in advance of a strong Nor’easter expected to track up the American Northeastern this weekend bringing heavy snow to parts of Upstate New York and New England. While earlier indications suggested it could have an impact on the Niagara region and Eastern Ontario, it now appears that the bulk of the moisture will stay well south of the border.

We will still see accumulating snowfall for those northwestern on the GTA including the Hanover, Orangeville, Newmarket and K/W region early Friday morning. This first wave of snowfall will continue throughout the morning before dissipating by the early afternoon. We expect to see around 4-8cm of snowfall accumulation in the aforementioned regions by the end of Friday. Those in Southwestern Ontario along with the GTA and around Georgian Bay can expect a few centimetres of fresh snow with ~5cm at most in the hardest-hit locations.

Another round of snow is expected to develop over the Niagara region and stretch into Eastern Ontario late Friday afternoon into the evening. This could also affect the GTA during the evening rush hour so do expect some impact on travel. Snowfall will continue to persist overnight and into Saturday morning before moving out as the Nor’easter misses us to the south. We expect the second wave will have a bit more moisture to work with so snowfall totals for Eastern Ontario and parts of the Niagara region will range from 6-12cm by Saturday morning. Can’t rule out that a few locations mainly through Kingston, Brockville and Cornwall approach the 15cm mark depending on how close the Nor’easter tracks to the border.

As the system moves out of the province, colder air will flood in behind it pushing temperatures well below the freezing mark on Saturday. There are some models suggesting that we could see the return of snow squalls off Lake Huron which could bring additional snowfall accumulation to parts of Grey-Bruce late Saturday. However, there is reason to be skeptical given this is a new trend in the models and how late we are in the season. Generally, we don’t see significant lake effect snow this late as the lakes are usually mostly frozen by now. That’s the case for the majority of Georgian Bay, but there is still a segment of Lake Huron that remains free of ice. But the ice that is present could inhibit any lake effect snow from getting too organized. As such, the forecast map above doesn’t factor in any accumulation from the lake effect activity. We will continue to monitor the latest data and post a forecast for the squalls as we get closer to Saturday.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, March 11, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Multiple waves of accumulating snow are expected to affect Southern Ontario on Friday. The first one will come during the morning hours to the northwest of the GTA with around 4-8cm of snow possible. Another round will come late in the day associated with a system continuing into Saturday. It appears that Niagara and Extreme Eastern Ontario will see the most snow with between 10-20cm possible. More details in a special forecast on Thursday.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, February 25, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A system is expected to bring widespread accumulating snow throughout Southern Ontario beginning early Friday morning. The first bands of precipitation will reach regions around Lake Erie sometime around the midnight hour. Light to moderate snow will continue to spread to the northeast throughout the predawn hours on Friday reaching the GTA by 2-4 am and Central/Eastern Ontario by the late morning.

The timing of this event couldn’t be any worse for those commuting on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occurring around sunrise. This event will be more of a persistent moderate snowfall with hourly accumulation ranging from 1-3cm. As a result, travel will still be heavily impacted, but road crews should be able to keep up for the most part and shouldn’t be overwhelming.

Blowing snow could be an issue as 40-60km/h wind gusts combined with this light powdery snow are a recipe for reduced visibility. Based on the timing, school bus cancellations can’t be ruled out mainly in the more rural school boards as they tend to be more sensitive to weather conditions. Travel according to the conditions and if possible, delay any travel until later in the day. This will be a fairly fast-moving snowfall event as we expect it will taper off by the late morning for Southwestern Ontario and mid-afternoon in Eastern Ontario.

We are looking at the highest snowfall totals from this event through Eastern Ontario along with the Niagara/Hamilton region due to lake enhancement off Lake Ontario. General accumulation here will range from 12-20cm with locally up to 25cm possible. For the rest of the Golden Horseshoe and into parts of Central Ontario, we can expect totals of between 8 and 14cm although a few locations particularly through the GTA could exceed the 15cm mark. Lower amounts are expected for Southwestern Ontario which should top out at somewhere around 6-12cm. Totals will decrease even further to the northwest including Parry Sound and Algonquin Park only expected to pick up a few centimetres of fresh snow if anything at all.

It should be mentioned that this event does appear to have a significant lake enhancement element associated with it. What does this mean? Well, snowfall accumulation with these events tends to have quite an uneven distribution. For example, one location could see 20+cm of snow while just down the road there is less than half of that. Don’t be surprised to see some locations overachieve the forecast, but we believe it’s more realistic to focus on the overall general totals.

While there is a fair amount of confidence in the models with this forecast, we may have to make adjustments on Thursday. If the track shifts either to the north or south we would have to also shift our forecast based on that change. However, we shouldn’t see any major changes to the forecast.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, February 11, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

An Alberta Clipper is expected to bring up to 10cm of snow to parts of Southern Ontario on Friday. However, the exact regions that will see the heaviest snowfall accumulation are unclear at the moment. A full forecast will be issued on Thursday.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Sunday, January 30, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and potential snow squalls could affect the Bruce Penisula and into areas east of Georgian Bay on Sunday. However, there is low confidence in the exact areas affected and intensity. More details on Saturday.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Monday, January 24, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

An intense squall may affect regions northeast of Georgian Bay around the Parry Sound and North Bay region early Monday. Up to 30cm of snow is possible. In addition to the squalls, some accumulating snow is possible throughout Southern Ontario late Monday into Tuesday. A forecast for this will be issued on Sunday.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Sunday, January 23, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and local snow squalls could affect Grey-Bruce counties starting late Saturday evening lasting into Sunday. There is uncertainty in exactly how much snow accumulation and exact locations impacted. More details on Saturday