Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Thursday, November 4, 2021

Forecast Discussion

Lake effect flurries are yet again expected throughout the morning and into the afternoon on Thursday around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. Unlike Wednesday, the wind direction will be changing throughout the day and it shouldn’t be particularly focused on a location so we won’t see any significant accumulation. There will still be some minor accumulation in some areas up to 2-4cm (maybe as much as 5cm) and even parts of the GTA may see the first flakes of the season. The lake effect activity will finally come to an end late Thursday.

Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Forecast Discussion

Lake effect activity will continue off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay overnight and into Wednesday. The wind direction will change to a more northwesterly direction which will bring the bands of flurries/wet snow to areas southeast of the lakes instead of the eastern regions that have been mainly affected during the day on Tuesday. Some areas that may see the first flakes of the season include Barrie, London and Brantford. Although significant accumulation isn’t expected at this time with at most 5cm of slushy accumulation. Be sure to drive according to the conditions as this is the first time many has had to drive in winter conditions since last spring.

Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Forecast Discussion

Scattered lake effect precipitation will continue through Tuesday affecting areas east of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. Depending on the temperature, some areas may see the precipitation come in the form of some wet snow and could even accumulate mainly during the early morning hours when temperatures are colder. The risk for lake effect snow includes the Muskoka, Simcoe County, Bancroft, Dundalk Highlands and Grey-Bruce regions. Accumulation mainly in the higher elevations could reach up to 5cm by the end of Tuesday although it will likely be melted.

Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Monday, November 1, 2021

Forecast Discussion

Bands of lake effect showers will develop off Georgian Bay in a westerly flow during the late morning hours on Monday. Later in the day, we expect colder air to flow into the region slowly dropping temperatures to near the freezing mark by Monday evening. This will allow for some wet flurries to mix in with the lake effect precipitation. The lake effect flurries will predominantly affect regions east of Georgian Bay along with the Tobermory area. We will also see some activity through the Elliot Lake region due to some lake effect precipitation off Lake Superior.

Not expecting much in terms of accumulation since temperatures will be mainly above the freezing mark so any snow will melt on contact with the ground. If we do see accumulation in some areas it’ll be at most a few centimetres of wet, slushy snow. The lake effect activity will continue overnight and into Tuesday where we may actually see some minor accumulation. More details in Tuesday’s outlook are to come soon.