Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, December 6, 2021

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The first winter storm of the season has started to affect Southern Ontario with a wide range of precipitation on Sunday and is expected to continue into Monday. This includes the potential for accumulating snow for Northeastern Ontario and northern parts of Central Ontario along with some freezing rain/sleet for the rest of Central Ontario and into Eastern Ontario. As a result, the road conditions in the area will likely be quite treacherous and prompt some school bus cancellations for Monday morning. Predicting where the cancellations will occur is quite hard with this storm in particular due to the timing as it appears the changing over from snow/freezing rain to regular rain will occur for most areas overnight which should somewhat improve conditions.

We do believe that the North Bay, Sudbury and Parry Sound corridor is practically guaranteed a snow day on Monday based on the heavy snowfall accumulation overnight that will continue into the morning. Further south, a zone stretching from Muskoka through Haliburton/Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley will likely see cancellations so we’ve given them a 75% chance. However, as we said, this will be heavily dependent on road conditions rather than the current weather as the switch over to rain will have likely occurred several hours before the decision is made. So it’s possible that not everyone sees a snow/ice day in this area especially if the rain is able to clean off the road (even though rural roads tend to stay icy for quite some time).

The chance of a snow/ice day diminishes the further south you go where less wintery precipitation is expected or the switch over will occur late this evening which is unlikely to impact the morning commute with heavy rain throughout the night. Areas such as Simcoe County/Kawartha Lakes into the Dundalk Highlands and Grey-Bruce ranges from a 25-50% chance of bus cancellations as there is a freezing rain threat tonight, but should be done well before morning. The rest of Southern Ontario is unlikely to see bus cancellations with mainly just rain from this system.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, November 29, 2021

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An overperforming system brought widespread snowfall accumulation throughout parts of Southern Ontario on Sunday with totals ranging from 5-20cm depending on the location. The snow has tapered off this evening, but some lake effect snow and localized squalls continue southeast of Lake Huron. This may result in some bus cancellations in the region around London and Sarnia for Monday morning due to blowing snow and reduced visibility although it won’t be overly strong. As such, we’ve given this area a 50% chance of a snow day with the cities of London and Sarnia having a 25% chance of a snow day.

The rest of the regions in Southern Ontario that saw snow on Sunday has a 5-10% chance of seeing bus cancellations as we believe that road conditions should be fine by morning since there will be plenty of time for road crews to clean everything up. However, a few rural roads may still be snow-covered so we can’t completely rule out a snow day in a few school boards, but it’s hard to pinpoint which boards will have the best chance as it’ll depend on local road conditions.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Friday, November 26, 2021

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Snow squalls are expected to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Friday morning and continue throughout the day. With reduced visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation, it’s possible that we may see some bus cancellations for London, Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound and Collingwood. Now the squalls won’t be super strong so we’ve gone with a 50% probability of a snow day. Surrounding regions have a 10-25% chance of a snow day.

Also, it seems that the school boards in this region are particularly less sensitive to inclement weather and more likely to roll the dice on not cancelling the buses so we’ve accounted for this with a lower probability. Even though based on the weather conditions, we believe they should be cancellated as travel during the morning and afternoon will be quite difficult in the affected regions.

Another area further north through the North Bay, Pembroke and Bancroft area may also see some cancellations due to some heavy system-related snowfall along with icy road conditions as temperatures will drop well below the freezing mark early in the morning.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Tuesday, November 23, 2021

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Lake effect snow and localized squalls will continue around the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline overnight into Tuesday. However, the squalls are expected to weaken somewhat by the early morning so conditions at the time won’t be as bad as compared to earlier in the night. Despite that, the significant accumulation between 15-30cm still to come by the morning will likely result in some school bus cancellations through the affected area as roads will still be snow covered along with localized blowing snow.

The highest probability ranges from 50-75% which includes Simcoe County and portions of Grey-Bruce counties directly near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Some lake effect snow will continue to linger through the morning hours in the regions we've given the 75% chance of a snow day. Although it might not be enough as this region appears to be more stringent when calling a snow day even with a snow squall warning from Environment Canada in effect. The further away from the shorelines, the lower the chance of a snow day as this will be mainly contained to the traditional snowbelt.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, November 22, 2021

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Intense snow squalls are expected to develop early Monday morning and continue throughout the day for areas around parts of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. This will bring reduced visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation making for very poor driving conditions in the affected region. As a result, it’s hard to see how school buses will be able to run safely through Grey, Bruce and Simcoe Counties so we’ve given those areas a 75-90% chance of a snow day.

Surrounding regions including Parry Sound, Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, North Durham, Dufferin and North Huron/Perth counties have the chance of seeing a snow day ranging from 25-50%, but it’s not guaranteed depending on local road conditions in the morning. Other areas throughout the GTA, Kitchener/Waterloo region and London likely won’t see a snow day, but an isolated cancellation can’t be ruled out mainly due to the potential for some icy roads.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, November 17, 2021

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There is the risk of freezing rain starting Wednesday morning and continuing through the early afternoon hours in areas along the Quebec border. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue some freezing rain warnings which could cause some school bus cancellations within the affected areas on Wednesday.

We believe the North Bay area has the highest probability of getting an ‘ice day’ with a 75% chance. The Petawawa and Barry’s Bay area also has a decent probability of around 50%, but keep in mind that this school board cancels buses by region so those in Renfrew county will likely be unaffected. The surrounding region through the Ottawa Valley and into northern parts of Central Ontario varies from a 5-25% chance. In this area, bus cancellations are unlikely, but not entirely out of the question due to some freezing drizzle in the morning.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Friday, March 26, 2021

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A messy winter mix with a risk of prolonged freezing rain is expected to affect northern parts of Southern Ontario beginning early Friday morning. This will likely create hazardous driving conditions and combined with the freezing rain warning issued by Environment Canada, bus cancellations are extremely likely in the affected regions. The highest chance will be through the Parry Sound and North Bay area where the school board is generally more sensitive to winter weather and usually always cancels busses when snow or freezing rain is in the forecast. The freezing rain warning also affects the Huntsville area and given how that school board does school bus cancellations, it’s likely the entire Muskoka region will see buses cancelled even though only the northern part is affected. There is also a 50/50 chance for the Bruce Penisula. Surrounding regions have either a slight to low chance, but it’s very unlikely we’ll see cancellations outside of the main zone.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, March 1, 2021

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Snow squall watches currently in effect around parts of Georgian Bay and Lake Huon could lead to some bus cancellations with squalls expected to develop in time for the afternoon bus run. Although the probability isn’t very strong and we might not see any cancellations at all on Monday. For other areas, there is a very low chance for cancellations due to the potential for some icy roads as temperatures dip below the freezing mark early Monday morning.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, February 24, 2021

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An Alberta Clipper is expected to spread heavy snowfall throughout northern parts of Central and Eastern Ontario with the heaviest snow occurring just in time for the afternoon bus run. As a result, we do expect a few bus cancellations on Wednesday although there is a level of uncertainty because it will require the school board or bus consortium to consider the conditions in the future rather than just in the morning which will likely not be that bad. The highest probability exists through the North Bay and Parry Sound region where the school board tends to pay more attention to current weather alerts so we’ve given them a 75% chance of a snow day. All other regions through Central and Eastern Ontario range from a 25-50% chance with a lower probability outside of the current Environment Canada weather statement. The rest of Southern Ontario has a less than 5% chance of a snow day with little snowfall accumulation expected during the day on Wednesday.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Mixed Bag of Precipitation for the Island

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Valid: Tuesday February 16, 2021

Warnings have now been posted across the Province, and the models are still not in total agreement, but what can be seen is an entire mixed bag of precipitation will be makings it’s way here on Tuesday.

TIMING:

Snow will begin sometime before 8am on Tuesday across the entire Island. By the noon hour that snow will change over to ice pellets and by late afternoon it will change over to freezing rain. Precipitation should end near midnight.

TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PROVINCE:

Snowfall accumulations we can expect to see before change overs to ice pellets and freezing rain.

SNOWFALL

Prince County – 10-15 cm

Queens County – 10-15 cm

Kings County – 10-15 cm

ICE PELLETS

Prince County - 1-5 cm

Queens County - 1-5 cm

Kings County - 5-10 cm

FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION

Prince County - 5-10 mm

Queens County - 1-5 mm

Kings County - 1-5 mm

WIND:

Winds will gradually increase through the day and be stronger during the evening hours of Tuesday. Overall, wind should be 20-40 km/h with gusts of 40-60 km/h in the early evening hours.

TEMPERATURE:

Temperatures will gradually increase throughout the day Tuesday. Starting the day around -6 to -8C and ending the day in Prince County near -4c, Queens County near 3C and some areas of Kings county could see it reach near 7C near midnight.

Current models are indicating that Kings County and most of Queens County could see a change over to rain around 6-8 pm. Any shift in the front could vary the precipitation type and quantities.

We will continue to monitor this system and keep you updated with any significant changes.

As always, be safe and let us know what you are experiencing in your areas.

Storm chip Probability: 40%

IWPE Team (Mike S, Harry S)

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Tuesday, February 16, 2021

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A significant snowstorm is set to bring widespread snowfall accumulation between 20-30cm across Southern Ontario overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Schools are scheduled to return to regular in-person learning on Tuesday for the rest of the regions not yet fully open. But that will likely have to wait for another day as it’s very hard to see how school busses will be able to safely operate in this weather which will likely be probably the strongest storm many locations have seen in at least a year. Almost all of Southern Ontario with a few exceptions through Central and Northeastern Ontario will almost certainly see school bus cancellations and school closures (in some school boards this is automatic due to the pandemic where buses are cancelled).

The probability of school bus cancellations decreases as you go further to the north with less snow expected. For the Muskoka and Parry Sound region, there isn’t a warning in effect from Environment Canada currently but we still expected between 10-20cm of snow overnight. This should be enough to result in cancellations, but it’s not guaranteed.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, February 8, 2021

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NOTE: We’ve only shown the regions that has 5% or higher chance of bus cancellations tomorrow. Other parts of Southern Ontario can be assumed to have a less than 5% chance of bus cancellations.

NOTE: We’ve only shown the regions that has 5% or higher chance of bus cancellations tomorrow. Other parts of Southern Ontario can be assumed to have a less than 5% chance of bus cancellations.

Snow squalls have developed off Georgian Bay this evening are expected to continue into Monday morning. With up to 50-75cm possible in the hardest-hit regions plus the near-zero visibility from the squalls should be more than enough to result in some bus cancellations. The highest chance is through the Muskoka region with the squalls focused particularly over Southwestern Muskoka (Port Carling, Bala etc.) so we’ve given all of Muskoka a strong chance (75%). The Bruce Peninsula into Parry Sound has an equal chance as there’s still some question on if the lake effect will be strong enough to require bus cancellations. Other areas around Georgian Bay and slightly inland have some chance of bus cancellations but they aren’t that high (5-25%). The rest of Southern Ontario has a near-zero chance of bus cancellations.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

We are aware that some schools are teaching virtually to some students. This isn’t factored into the forecast as busing is still provided to special needs students and could be cancelled. For this reason, our forecast might not be as accurate as school boards become less or more sensitive to weather conditions.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Tuesday, December 1, 2020

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See below for regional maps of the hardest hit areas.

See below for regional maps of the hardest hit areas.

A slow-moving winter storm is expected to continue to bring significant snowfall to parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario through Tuesday. With the threat of rapidly accumulating snowfall combined with gusty winds, we believe there is a very good chance of bus cancellations on Tuesday in some areas. The highest probability is in regions where Environment Canada has issued winter storm or snowfall warning southwest of Lake Huron and around Georgian Bay. These locations include Strathroy, Collingwood, Owen Sound and Meaford with bus cancellations almost certain on Tuesday.

Other areas around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron could see some bus cancellations with the probability ranging from 50-75%. Outside of the snowbelts, the chance of a snow day is fairly low due to the lower snow totals expected with rain mixing in near the Lake Ontario shoreline. Eastern Ontario has a near-zero chance of a snow day with rain continuing into Tuesday evening so it’s hard to see any reason for bus cancellations on Tuesday morning.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Regional Maps

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, November 23, 2020

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A snowstorm that has brought widespread snowfall accumulation between 10-20cm throughout Southern Ontario during the day on Sunday is expected to continue to affect parts of Eastern Ontario into the overnight hours and Monday morning. This will result in a messy morning commute in Eastern Ontario particularly around the Pembroke, Renfrew and Ottawa area where the precipitation will stay mainly snow with some freezing rain mixed in after midnight.

A messy commute means there is a good chance of school bus cancellations in the hardest-hit regions. The probability ranges from 50-75% through the Ottawa Valley and away from Lake Ontario. Those closer to Lake Ontario like Kingston has a slightly lower chance because lots of rain is expected to mix in overnight which will likely reduce the accumulation to below the threshold needed for any cancellations. Now while Southwestern Ontario (London, K/W etc.) and the GTA have seen significant snowfall accumulation, we expect there to be plenty of time for road crews to clean up the roads in time for the morning and precipitation is already beginning to taper off this evening. We’ve still given these regions a 5-10% chance of a snow day but it’s fairly unlikely unless local road conditions unrelated to the weather cause some cancellations.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.