Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Friday, December 16, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

A winter storm continues to affect Southern Ontario this evening and is expected to linger overnight and into Friday morning. The worst conditions will be found in Eastern Ontario where heavy snow will likely result in school bus cancellations on Friday. We’ve already seen the Catholic District School Board of Eastern Ontario (CDSBEO) and Upper Canada District School Board (UCDSB) announce tonight that they’re proactively cancelling school buses for Friday. Based on the expected conditions, it’s almost certain that other surrounding school boards including Ottawa, Renfrew and Kingston will follow suit in cancelling school buses or even closing schools on Friday.

Further west, the probability of school bus cancellations will diminish as the snow will end overnight for those regions. We have the Peterborough and Lindsay area at a 75-90% chance of a snow day while northern Durham and Haliburton have a 50/50 chance. The rest of Central Ontario into parts of Southwestern Ontario and the GTA is unlikely to see school bus cancellations on Friday, however, there is a slight chance based on the potential for slushy and icy roads overnight with temperatures hovering near the freezing mark.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as the parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast.

Snow/Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Thursday, December 15, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

The first significant snowstorm of the season is expected to affect Southern Ontario beginning Thursday morning with heavy snowfall and prolonged freezing rain. A storm of this magnitude would typically result in widespread school bus cancellations in many regions, however, the worst of the conditions won’t start until later in the morning or early afternoon when the decision to cancel buses has been made hours before.

This will mean that the chance for a ‘snow/ice day’ rests on each school board proactively taking the afternoon’s forecast and alerts from Environment Canada into consideration when deciding in the morning. This tends to be hit or miss with some school boards having a better track record when it comes to proactive cancellation so we’ve factored this into the forecast.

The highest chance of school bus cancellations exists in Southwestern Ontario where a freezing rain warning is in effect and will be ongoing during the early morning hours. We have given this area a 75% chance of a snow day with the more urban areas (London, K/W, Guelph and Hamilton) having a slightly lower chance at 50%.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, there is less certainty as the snow will start later in the day and will again be dependent on boards being proactive. We believe the Kingston and Belleville region is quite likely to see a snow day because that school board has shown a history of considering the forecast when deciding along with Environment Canada issuing a strongly worded snowfall warning. Other school boards are a toss-up at this point and could go either way.

It’s unlikely we will see school bus cancellations in the Niagara, Toronto, Barrie or Ottawa regions as they tend to be more strict with bus cancellations and a weather advisory usually isn’t enough.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as the parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Friday, November 18, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

Dangerous winter weather conditions are expected east of Georgian Bay and parts of the Niagara and Kingston regions with intense snow squalls overnight into Friday. This will almost certainly lead to school bus cancellations for the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions on Friday. In addition to this, there is a fairly good chance of a snow day in the Niagara and Kingston regions along with Grey-Bruce counties which could also see lake-effect snow overnight with particularly heavy accumulation. With a strongly worded snow squall warning from Environment Canada combined with the forecast calling for up to 15-30cm of snow by Friday afternoon, it’s guaranteed to cause bus cancellations with school closures not completely off the tables either.

The potential for a snow day will be fairly isolated with the probability quickly decreasing away from the traditional snowbelts. There is uncertainty for the Lake Huron shoreline and into Simcoe County where strongly worded alerts are in effect, but might not be hardest hit. As such, it is questionable if the conditions will warrant cancellations.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as the parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Thursday, November 17, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

Snow squalls have developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay this evening and are expected to continue overnight and into Thursday morning. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue snow squall warnings for some regions with up to 15-20cm of snow possible by Thursday morning.

As a result, the conditions will likely merit the cancellation of school buses in the affected areas. The highest probability of bus cancellations is in the Goderich and Kincardine regions along with Simcoe County's west and north weather zones. Cancellations are quite likely here based on the expected snowfall accumulation and reduced visibility in the morning. Still, it's not fully guaranteed as snow squalls tend to have a very localized impact. The potential for a snow day will quickly diminish further inland away from the snowbelts.

It should be mentioned that there are also snow squall watches in effect for the Muskoka, Niagara and Kingston regions. These watches are for squalls developing late Thursday so they won't have an impact on tomorrow's school day. However, it will likely result in bus cancellations on Friday so check back tomorrow evening for that forecast.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as the parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast.

Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, March 30, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

Scattered freezing rain is expected to affect Southern Ontario starting Wednesday morning and continuing throughout the day. There is a chance of school bus cancellations, however, the lack of freezing rain warnings at the moment and the timing makes it less certain exactly where these cancellations will occur. We have given a widespread 50% chance for Southwestern Ontario including Windsor, Sarnia, Rural London, Huron/Perth and Grey/Bruce. Freezing rain will begin sometime around the mid-morning hours so we’re not confident enough that the conditions will be bad enough at 5-6 am when the decision is made.

If school boards consider the forecast for freezing rain to linger into the afternoon, they should cancel school buses in the morning, but this is very subjective depending on the board. If Environment Canada upgrades some regions to a freezing rain warning by morning then that would greatly increase the chance of an ice day. So keep in mind this forecast is based on the assumption that only special weather statements are in effect by morning. It could go either way depending on the local road conditions and the weather alerts in effect when the decision is made. We may see very few cancellations or widespread cancellations on Wednesday morning as it’s right on the line.

The probability of school bus cancellations is lower in the more urban school boards including London, Hamilton/Niagara and the GTA with the chance of an ice day ranging from 5-25%. Central and Eastern Ontario will see the freezing rain start late in the afternoon so it shouldn’t affect buses there, but we can’t rule it out as some of those school boards tend to be more proactive. A freezing rain warning is currently in effect for the Sudbury and North Bay region and the school boards there tend to be more sensitive to the weather so cancellations there are very likely (75%).

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, March 23, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

A risk of prolonged freezing rain starting Wednesday morning will likely result in many school bus cancellations mainly throughout the Dundalk Highlands and into Central Ontario. Environment Canada has a Freezing Rain Warning in effect for the higher elevations northwest of the GTA including Kitchener, Guelph and Orangeville warning of ‘significant freezing rain’ which will almost certainly lead to the school boards in those regions to cancel school buses and perhaps even close schools. As a result, we have given that area a 75-90% chance of an ‘ice day’ for Wednesday. The only exception is the London and Hamilton region which are more urban and it’s questionable if the severity of this event will merit cancellations in those regions.

Outside of this region, Environment Canada does have a Special Weather Statement in effect for much of Central Ontario mentioning the risk of freezing rain. How this is interpreted will depend on each board so we have given some regions a 50% chance indicating that it could go either way. While the boards that tend to be less sensitive to weather have a 25% chance of seeing cancellations. Those in the Parry Sound/North Bay region have a 75% chance mainly because that school board tends to cancel whenever there is wintery weather in the forecast during the school day.

We don’t expect the cancellations to extend into the urban school board around the GTA as this freezing rain event will be mainly contained to the higher elevations. However, it can’t be ruled out depending on the exact temperature in the morning so we’ve still given them a 10-25% chance of seeing an ice day.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Ice/Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, March 7, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

A winter storm is expected to impact Southern Ontario on Monday. This system will bring the threat of freezing rain and heavy snow to Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario. As a result, there is the potential for school bus cancellations on Monday morning. The highest chance for cancellations is for the London, K/W, and Guelph region where a freezing rain warning is currently in effect with a 75% chance. Usually, school buses are cancellated whenever there is an active freezing rain warning. Hamilton also has that freezing rain warning, but it’s a more urban school board and tends to have a higher threshold for cancellation so we’ve given them a 50% chance of an ‘ice day’.

A few other regions including Parry Sound, North Bay and Bancroft (North Hastings) also have a strong chance of seeing cancellations as those school boards have a history of being more sensitive to weather conditions. And a winter travel advisory should be sufficient to cause them to cancel buses there. Otherwise, we’ve given a widespread 25-50% for most regions across Southern Ontario mainly because it will be very subjective and depend on each individual school board. The precipitation starts later in the morning a few hours after the decision is made which makes it a tricky forecast. Generally it’s a toss-up on if a winter travel advisory is enough to result in cancellations.

It’s unlikely we will see cancellations for the urban regions including Windsor, Niagara, Halton, Peel, Toronto and Ottawa as the weather conditions likely won’t be severe enough for them. However, we still have given them a 10-25% chance so it’s not out of the question.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Friday, February 25, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

A widespread snowfall event is expected to affect Southern Ontario during the morning and afternoon on Friday. This will likely result in some school bus cancellations, but the amount of snow expected is right on the line for more widespread cancellations. Usually, anything over 15cm would result in almost guaranteed cancellations.

With this system, we’re expecting between 8-16cm with most of that occurring after the decision to cancel buses is made in the morning. It will require each school board to be proactive and right now most regions only have a travel advisory in effect from Environment Canada so they likely won’t view it as severe. There is a snowfall warning in effect for parts of Eastern Ontario and that school board tends to take weather alerts seriously so we believe they have a 75-90% chance of a snow day.

Outside of that, we have given a 50% chance for the more rural boards that tend to have a lower threshold for cancellations. The more urban school boards around the GTA range from 10-25% as we don’t believe the amount of snow expected will meet their higher threshold, but a few may surprise us depending on the road conditions.

As you can see, there is a higher amount of uncertainty regarding this forecast since it’s right on the line. If we see Environment Canada add some regions to the snowfall warning by morning then that would significantly increase the chance of a snow day. Otherwise, it’s a widespread ‘flip a coin’ day so don’t count on a snow day, but it’s not out of the question.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, February 23, 2022

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Freezing rain throughout Central and Eastern Ontario is expected to continue overnight with temperatures remaining near the freezing mark going into Wednesday morning. In addition to this, a flash freeze is expected early Wednesday morning for those regions that did get above freezing which will lead to very icy road conditions. As a result, we expect another day of widespread school bus cancellations with affected regions being similar to what we saw on Tuesday.

Bus cancellations are almost certain for Sudbury, North Bay, Parry Sound, Muskoka, Haliburton and the Bancroft/Renfrew region with a 90% chance of an ‘ice day’. Road conditions and ongoing freezing rain makes it hard to see how busses could safely operate in this region. For Extreme Eastern Ontario including Ottawa, we have gone with a 75% chance here as there will be a slight warm-up early Wednesday morning allowing for some melting. But road conditions will likely still be quite hazardous, especially in rural areas.

The probability quickly decreases to the south and west where the freeze over will be more gradual and didn’t see much freezing rain. We still have a 5% chance in Deep Southwestern Ontario as temperatures will be slightly below the freezing at 6 AM and can’t rule out the very very slim chance of bus cancellations based on road conditions.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Tuesday, February 22, 2022

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An extensive freezing rain risk throughout the day on Tuesday will likely result in the cancellation of school buses throughout Central and Eastern Ontario. Environment Canada has issued Freezing Rain Warnings in many regions mentioning the potential for ‘significant’ ice accumulation from freezing rain which should be sufficient enough to cancel school buses and maybe even close schools. As such, we have given these regions a 75-90% chance of an ‘ice day’ on Tuesday. The Ottawa region has a slightly lower chance due to it being a more urban school board and tends to have a higher threshold for cancellation. That threshold should still be met, but it's not fully guaranteed.

The probability of bus cancellations will decrease further to the south as freezing rain will have less of an impact and there isn’t a Freezing Rain Warning in effect. Those in higher elevations including the Dundalk Highlands have a 50/50 chance based on some freezing drizzle that could be ongoing around the time the decision to cancel buses is made. We don’t expect cancellations in the GTA, however, we gave them a 5-10% chance just in case local roads are icy. That’s very questionable though as the temperature should be above the freezing mark by mid-morning so don’t count on it.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Friday, February 18, 2022

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A snowstorm is currently ongoing across Southern Ontario and is expected to bring widespread snowfall accumulation of between 15-25cm by Friday morning. This will likely result in a big impact on the morning commute with widespread school bus cancellations or school closures expected.

Based on the timing of this event, the higher chance of a ‘snow day’ will be through Eastern Ontario as the snow will still be falling around 6 am which is when the decision to cancel school buses is made. It’s hard for us to see how any school buses will be able to safely operate in this region on Friday so there is a 90% chance of a snow day.

Further west, it will really come down to how fast road crews are able to clear up the snowfall accumulation from overnight. Blowing snow will also be a concern during the morning which would also factor into the decision. The more rural school boards outside of the GTA have a 75% chance as they are fairly likely to see bus cancellations, but it’s not guaranteed like in Eastern Ontario.

While conditions will be similar, we’ve given the GTA a 50% chance as these school boards tend to have a higher threshold for cancellations due to being less reliant on bussing. And Southwestern Ontario will see the snow come to an end several hours earlier so we aren’t as confident that road conditions will still be bad enough to prompt cancellations. As such, they also have a 50/50 chance of seeing cancellations on Friday.

NOTE: We are aware that some school boards have a PA Day on Friday. Based on feedback, we have decided to create our forecast without considering any PA days as not every school board even in the same region follows the same schedule. This ensures that no one is left out of our forecast. If you have a PA Day tomorrow, consider it a guaranteed snow day and enjoy the weather!

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Thursday, February 17, 2022

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An impactful winter storm is set to affect Southern Ontario beginning Thursday. The main event doesn’t get underway until later in the day so that shouldn’t be an issue when it comes to school buses on Thursday. However, icy road conditions from the temperature drop and the risk of freezing rain during the morning and afternoon could be sufficient enough to merit some bus cancellations.

The best chance to see bus cancellations is the Sarnia and Windsor area where a Winter Storm Warning from Environment Canada talks about a freezing rain risk in the morning which is usually enough to result in cancellations. Not to mention that the freeze-over will occur during the morning too compared to later in the day for others. As such, there is a 90% chance of a snow (or ice) day in this zone. The London area has a similar warning so we’ve given them a 75% chance.

Outside of this region, we have fairly low confidence in exactly which boards will choose to cancel so we’ve gone with a widespread 50% chance of a snow day. The only exception to this is the more urban school boards including Toronto, Niagara and Ottawa which tend to have a higher threshold to cancel buses or close schools and have a 25% chance. The school boards that cover the Parry Sound/North Bay and Bancroft area tend to cancel buses more frequently so we’ve bumped those areas up to a 75% chance. This is simply based on the track record in these regions. We aren’t saying that conditions will be particularly worse compared to other regions. It’s just that we’re more confident in those boards to be more proactive and cancel school buses.

Bus cancellations and school closures are expected to be more widespread for Friday as the snowfall overnight will make for quite a mess for the Friday morning commute.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Thursday, February 3, 2022

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Heavy snowfall has brought widespread accumulation between 10-25cm throughout parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario which is expected to continue into Thursday. By the morning, the focus will have turned to the Niagara region and Extreme Southeastern Ontario where more heavy snow is expected throughout the day on Thursday.

With a Winter Storm Warning in effect from Environment Canada for the Niagara region and Hamilton means the chance of school bus cancellations and school closures is quite high ranging from 75-90%. Eastern Ontario also has a fairly good chance as heavy snow will impact the morning commute combined with some icy road conditions due to the previous rain freezing up as the temperatures drop. However, there is no current warning from Environment Canada out there so we’ve given them a 75% chance as it’s not set in stone.

A fairly expansive zone including Sarnia, London, K/W and Guelph has a 50% chance. This is mainly because the snow will end overnight, but with nearly 20cm on the ground in some areas, it’s possible that roads might not be clear by morning. The probability will quickly drop off to the north and west where the second wave isn’t expected to have much of an impact and the first wave will end around midnight giving sufficient time for clean up by morning. Can’t be ruled out though mainly due to the icy road conditions, but this will be a local issue and we shouldn’t see many school bus cancellations outside of the areas we mentioned.

It should be noted that there is higher confidence in this forecast compared to the forecast for today. We saw many cancellations in the west, but many school boards decided to roll the dice further east despite the forecast so they didn’t cancel buses. This likely won’t be the case for Thursday as heavy snow will be ongoing and it won’t depend much on forecasted conditions later in the day.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, February 2, 2022

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A multi-day snowstorm is set to bring between 10-30cm of snow to much of Southern Ontario starting Wednesday and continuing into Friday. As a result, widespread school bus cancellations and school closures are likely on Wednesday and will likely occur on Thursday as well. What makes this event tricky is the timing where the worst conditions will occur during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. So any cancellations for Wednesday won’t be based on the conditions in the morning and will come down to each school board looking at the forecast and being proactive.

Based on this, we have given a widespread 75% chance of a snow day for much of Southern Ontario. We believe buses should be cancelled for all of Southern Ontario. However, given the lack of watches/warnings at this time from Environment Canada (most areas except for Deep Southwestern Ontario, Hamilton and Niagara region only have a weather advisory in effect as of 8:20 PM) there is some question on if it will happen. We are fairly certain on Deep Southwestern Ontario where a winter storm warning should be severe enough for a snow day so we gave the Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia region a 90% chance.

The GTA has a slightly lower chance ranging from 25-50% mostly because these are urban school boards and they tend to be less reliant on busing. Without a watch/warning, they are unlikely to call a snow day based on their previous track record. The chance is still there, but it’s not guaranteed. This also applies to the Ottawa area which usually has a higher threshold for cancellations.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, January 19, 2022

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CANCELLATIONS FROM MONDAY’S SNOWSTORM FOR WEDNESDAY (as of 8:30 PM)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic - KPRDSB and PVNCCDSB have made the decision that: All schools in Clarington will be CLOSED to students & staff tomorrow, Jan 19, and will pivot to remote learning. As such, all transportation to Clarington schools will be cancelled.

Note: This forecast is only for cancellations related to the system coming through tonight into tomorrow. Most school boards that were closed on Tuesday due to the snowstorm cleanup have already confirmed that schools will reopen on Wednesday. It’s unlikely we will see closures on Wednesday related to Monday’s snowstorm outside of what has been announced tonight.

An Alberta Clipper is expected to bring up to 12-20cm of snow for parts of Central and Northeastern Ontario beginning tonight and lasting into Wednesday. This will likely result in some bus cancellations in the hardest-hit regions on Wednesday. The highest probability for a ‘snow day’ is through the North Bay and Parry Sound region where we have a 75% chance of a snow day. This is mostly because that school board, in particular, has a track record of cancelling buses whenever there’s a weather advisory or more in effect from Environment Canada. The weather advisory calling for up to 10-20cm in that area should be sufficient to see bus cancellations there.

Throughout the rural regions of Central Ontario including Muskoka, Bancroft and Renfrew we have a 50% chance as it’s a little more uncertain if conditions will reach the level to result in school bus cancellations. The Ottawa region has a 25% chance as they will still see 6-12cm of snow, but that school board tends to be less sensitive to snow and generally only cancels for 15+cm of snow. It’s not out of the question though especially with the cleanup from the last snowstorm still ongoing. The rest of Southern Ontario has a 10% or lower chance of a snow day as this system will be focused on Central and Eastern Ontario.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, January 17, 2022

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CANCELLATIONS ALREADY ANNOUNCED (as of 9:00 PM)

  • Ottawa-Carleton District: With a major snowstorm headed to the Ottawa area, the Ottawa-Carleton District School Board is shifting to remote learning for all students, including students in specialized education program classes, on Monday, January 17, 2022 (LINK).

  • Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: Due to the anticipated poor weather conditions tomorrow, Jan. 17, all school transportation will be cancelled. Schools will be OPEN to staff and students. Students can participate in asynchronous learning activities from home. There will be no online synchronous learning (LINK).

After a longer than expected break from our snow day forecasts for the holidays due to schools going online for a few weeks, children across Southern Ontario are set to return to schools in person on Monday. However, it appears that return to school won’t happen until Tuesday for most parts of the region thanks to a snowstorm that is expected to bring one of the biggest dumpings of snow that we’ve seen in years. Based on the track of this system and the distribution of the heaviest snowfall, the highest probability for snow bus cancellations and even school closures will be in the eastern part of our region.

This storm is expected to be so impactful with rapid snowfall accumulation and blizzard-like conditions that we’ve decided to add a new category to our legend. The new ‘Stay Home’ category is basically where we expected conditions to be so dangerous out on the roads that it would be very very hard to see how buses can safely operate. And as a result, the chances of a snow day is 99.99% in this area which includes much of Eastern Ontario and the Niagara region. Travel in this area will be nearly impossible so school closures are also fairly likely (although some school boards have a policy where bus cancellations will automatically close schools).

The probability of a snow day (or virtual school day for some) will rapidly decrease as you head further to the west in our region where less snow is expected. The GTA including Hamilton and Central Ontario (Kawartha Lakes, Haliburton) has a very high probability (90%) of seeing a snow day on Monday, but it’s not as certain as those in Eastern Ontario and the Niagara region. The K/W, Barrie and Muskoka corridor has a fairly strong chance (75%) especially if Environment Canada upgrades the current advisory to a snowfall warning which will likely be needed based on the expected accumulation.

Southwestern Ontario including London and the Lake Huron shoreline is unlikely to see any bus cancellations as accumulation isn’t expected to be significant enough however it’s not zero. Deep Southwestern Ontario such as Windsor and Sarnia is very very unlikely to see bus cancellations as there will be barely any accumulation there.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, December 15, 2021

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There is the risk of freezing rain through parts of Eastern and Central Ontario starting early Wednesday afternoon. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue a Special Weather Statemate and will likely be upgraded to a Freezing Rain Warning by morning. As a result, we will likely see some bus cancellations in the morning in advance of the expected freezing rain. The best chance of an ‘ice day’ will exist through parts of North Bay and into Petawawa/Renfrew where the school boards tend to be more sensitive when it comes to weather alerts from Environment Canada. So we’ve given them a 75% chance of seeing bus cancellations.

As this event will occur in the afternoon, it will depend on school boards being proactive with the cancellations in the morning. So our forecast might not make much sense since Ottawa will see similar impacts as North Bay. However, we’ve factored in the history of each region into our forecast as it will be a subjective decision. We also considered the proportion of the region that is expected to see freezing rain as cancellations are often made at a county level. So for example, we have a 25% chance for the entire region of Muskoka as cancellations are generally made for the entire region even though only Huntsville is expecting any freezing rain. With this forecast, we’re more predicting human behaviour rather than weather conditions which is quite difficult to do. Keep in mind that confidence in this forecast is low - it’s possible we don’t see any cancellations on Wednesday.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, December 8, 2021

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Snow squalls that are expected to affect the Bruce Peninsula and Parry Sound area starting early Wednesday will bring poor road conditions throughout the day. As a result, we will likely see some bus cancellations with a 75% chance for the Parry Sound region and 50% for the Bruce Peninsula and surrounding regions around Parry Sound. There is also the off chance that we see bus cancellations through the Kingston and Prince Edward County region where some heavy lake effect snow may cause whiteout conditions during the morning and afternoon so we’ve given them a 25% chance of a snow day. The rest of Southern Ontario is unlikely to see bus cancellations with less than 10% of a chance.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Tuesday, December 7, 2021

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Squalls have developed off the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay and are expected to continue overnight with intense snowfall accumulation and near-zero visibility. This will have a significant impact on the road conditions during the morning hours which will likely result in some school bus cancellations in the hardest-hit regions. We have given Simcoe and parts of Grey-Bruce counties a 75% chance of a snow day as bus cancellations are quite likely, however, this area has had a mixed record when it comes to cancelling buses due to snow squall activity so we can’t give them a 90% chance. Surrounding regions including the rest of Grey-Bruce counties into Huron-Perth and over into regions east of Lake Simcoe has a 50/50 chance as there is the potential for some whiteout conditions during the morning hours.

The probability of a snow day will quickly diminish the further you are from Georgian Bay since this is a very localized event. In the Parry Sound-Muskoka region, we’ve decided to go with a 25% chance because while we aren’t expecting much in terms of accumulation tonight, the squall activity will drift northward later in the day. We suspect Environment Canada may issue a snow squall watch for the area by morning which could prompt cancellations. In addition to this, road conditions are still quite icy and the very cold temperatures moving in overnight won’t help.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.