Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Tuesday, November 2, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered lake effect precipitation will continue through Tuesday affecting areas east of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. Depending on the temperature, some areas may see the precipitation come in the form of some wet snow and could even accumulate mainly during the early morning hours when temperatures are colder. The risk for lake effect snow includes the Muskoka, Simcoe County, Bancroft, Dundalk Highlands and Grey-Bruce regions. Accumulation mainly in the higher elevations could reach up to 5cm by the end of Tuesday although it will likely be melted.

Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Tuesday, November 2, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered lake effect precipitation will continue through Tuesday affecting areas east of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. Depending on the temperature, some areas may see the precipitation come in the form of some wet snow and could even accumulate mainly during the early morning hours when temperatures are colder. The risk for lake effect snow includes the Muskoka, Simcoe County, Bancroft, Dundalk Highlands and Grey-Bruce regions. Accumulation mainly in the higher elevations could reach up to 5cm by the end of Tuesday although it will likely be melted.

Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Monday, November 1, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Bands of lake effect showers will develop off Georgian Bay in a westerly flow during the late morning hours on Monday. Later in the day, we expect colder air to flow into the region slowly dropping temperatures to near the freezing mark by Monday evening. This will allow for some wet flurries to mix in with the lake effect precipitation. The lake effect flurries will predominantly affect regions east of Georgian Bay along with the Tobermory area. We will also see some activity through the Elliot Lake region due to some lake effect precipitation off Lake Superior.

Not expecting much in terms of accumulation since temperatures will be mainly above the freezing mark so any snow will melt on contact with the ground. If we do see accumulation in some areas it’ll be at most a few centimetres of wet, slushy snow. The lake effect activity will continue overnight and into Tuesday where we may actually see some minor accumulation. More details in Tuesday’s outlook are to come soon.

Northern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Monday, November 1, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered flurries are expected to affect Northern Ontario during the day on Monday although it’s unclear if there will be any noticeable accumulation of 5cm or more. We will continue to go over the latest data and issue an updated outlook by Sunday evening.

Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Monday, November 1, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Lake effect showers are expected to continue through Monday around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. By late Monday we may see the showers transition over to some wet flurries in higher elevation east of Georgian Bay and over the Dundalk Highlands. This may continue overnight and into Tuesday morning. No significant accumulation is expected at this time, but we’re watching and will issue an outlook on Sunday evening.

An Eerily Mild Halloween Across Southern Ontario With Wicked Lake Effect Showers Around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay

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Will it be trick or treat across Southern Ontario for Halloween? Well it appears that Mother Nature has been brewing a mixed bag in our cauldron of weather. While we aren’t expecting any spine-chilling temperatures like in previous years or spooky snow, we could be looking at some gruesome lake effect showers around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay during the evening hours. This could be quite the nightmare as it puts a damper on the little witches and warlocks going door to door looking for treats (or tricks). You may want to grab a ghoulish umbrella before heading out so everyone can remain bone dry. We aren’t expecting much in terms of rainfall totals from the lake effect showers, but it will be sure to make for a damp night in some areas. The rest of Southern Ontario is looking at quite the treat of a night with temperatures in the upper single digits to low double digits throughout Southwestern and Eastern Ontario along with the GTA and Niagara region. We hope you have a very frightening and safe night!

Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Friday, October 29, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Heavy rain will start to move into regions along the Lake Erie shoreline early Friday and continue throughout the day. Other parts of Southern Ontario including areas around GTA and into Eastern Ontario will also see some rain later in the day and into Saturday morning, but it’s not expected to be as intense. Rainfall totals between 20-40mm are expected from the Hamilton/Niagara region to Extreme Southwestern Ontario (Windsor, Chatham etc.).

The bulk of the rain will fall on Friday but around 5-10mm may come overnight into Saturday morning with higher amounts on Saturday for Eastern Ontario. Rainfall totals between Friday and Saturday may exceed 25mm around the GTA and the Lake Ontario shoreline although 25+mm isn’t expected on one day so that’s not included on the map. Other areas can expect 5-10mm with lower amounts the further north and west you go.

In addition to the rainfall, there is the risk of frost for parts of Eastern Ontario on Friday morning. Temperatures are expected to come near the freezing mark which may allow for some frost to develop particularly in higher elevations around Bancroft and Algonquin Park.

Southern Ontario: Fall Weather Hazards Outlook for Friday, October 29, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect areas around Lake Erie during the day on Friday and continuing into Sunday. Some locations may receive rainfall totals in excess of 25mm in some localized pockets particularly through Extreme Southwestern Ontario and into the Niagara region. Although confidence is low at this point in the exact amount of rain as it depends on the track of the system.