New Year Snowstorm This Weekend Takes a Southern Shift Bringing the Potential for Up to 6-12cm of Snow to Southwestern/Eastern Ontario and the GTHA

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MAP UPDATED - SAT, JAN 1, 2022 @ 2:50 PM (CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR PREVIOUS MAP)

UPDATED FORECAST (Jan 1 - 2:50 PM)

After reviewing the latest model data this morning, we've decided to make a few adjustments to our snowfall forecast for tonight into Sunday.

This system has been hard to nail down as models have handled it quite poorly. The expected track of this system has shifted around throughout the last few days, but it looks like we're finally getting some consensus on how this will affect Southern Ontario.

The main change we've made to our forecast is tightening the snowfall gradient along the northwestern edge because the latest high-resolution data suggest that the precipitation will track tightly along the Lake Erie/Ontario shoreline and into Eastern Ontario. This has affected the Ottawa Valley, around Lake Simcoe and northern Southwestern Ontario with lower expected snowfall totals compared to our previous forecast.

It also appears that the system will be slightly weaker so we adjusted our legend by reducing the expected snowfall totals by 2-4cm for most areas. We've kept the 12-20cm zone through higher elevations in the Hamilton/Niagara region and the international border in Eastern Ontario.

The snow will start late this evening and continue overnight. We expect the heaviest snow to occur during the morning hours on Sunday. It will begin to clear out by the afternoon (or evening for Eastern Ontario).

OLD FORECAST DISCUSSION (NUMBERS MAY BE INACCURATE)

It appears that Mother Nature will deliver a wintery blast of snow to much of Southern Ontario to start the New Year. The system responsible for this snow will begin to enter Southern Ontario just during the late afternoon or early evening starting with the Windsor area. This persistent snowfall will spread to the northeast reaching the GTA just before midnight and Eastern Ontario during the overnight.

As we covered in our preliminary forecast, the exact impact of this system will depend on the track. The latest data has shifted the system further to our south which means there have been some changes to the expected snowfall totals. Due to the southern shift, we expect that we will stay on the cold side of the system and any mixed precipitation will likely remain south of the border. There could be a few hours of mixed precipitation along the Lake Erie shoreline and around the Niagara region, but they should quickly change over to snow.

It should be noted that there is some significant disagreement in the models in regards to exactly how far south this system will track. The American models appear to have more of a consensus between them which we’ve gone with them in creating our forecast. The show a slightly more northern track which would bring widespread accumulating snow to all areas to the south and east of Lake Simcoe. However, the Canadian model wants to take the snow even further south which would reduce snowfall totals even more to our north and perhaps even through the GTA and Southwestern Ontario.

With either scenario, we should still see the Niagara region and Eastern Ontario along the St. Lawrence River picking up at least 10cm of snow. There could be some underachievement in the snow totals on the northern edge of our 8-16cm zone should the more southern track be accurate. The ‘winners’ in terms of the highest snow totals from this event appear to be the higher elevations around Hamilton thanks to some lake enhancement off Lake Ontario. This area has the potential to exceed the 15cm mark. Another zone that includes Extreme Eastern Ontario along the International border including Kingston, Brockville and Cornwall may also see some totals near 20cm.

Otherwise, we’re looking at general totals ranging from 8-16cm from Southwestern Ontario through the GTA/Niagara region and into the Ottawa Valley. Again, keep in mind this is based on the more northern track and could be lower. The potential accumulation will drop off the further to the north you are in Southern Ontario. Those through Central Ontario and into Northeastern Ontario will be lucky to see even a few centimetres of snow from this storm.

Snowfall will continue overnight and into Sunday. There will also be some strong wind gusts ranging from 25-50km/h which may create blowing snow conditions out on the roads. Be sure to take your time and drive according to the conditions. We expect to see the snowfall tapering off late Sunday afternoon for those further west and early evening in Eastern Ontario.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Saturday, January 1 - Sunday, January 2, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

It has been a fairly quiet year when it comes to winter weather across Southern Ontario so far. But as we ring in the New Year, it appears that our lack of wintery weather will come to an end as a potential snowstorm takes aim at Southern Ontario. The precipitation will begin late Saturday and continue into Sunday morning/afternoon with the worst conditions expected during the overnight on Saturday. This system will also be accompanied by wind gusts ranging from 30-50km/h which may bring the potential for some blowing snow and reduced visibility out on the roads.

We will start the first morning of the New Year on Saturday with some scattered showers and temperatures a few degrees above the freezing mark. A second round of precipitation is expected to reach our region by the afternoon on Saturday starting with the Windsor area and spreading towards the northeast later in the day. It will likely start as some rain for those closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shoreline, but colder air will flow in from the northwest as this storm moves through the region which will allow for a change over to some wet snow by the early evening.

Further north, the cooldown will have already occurred before the precipitation starts so it should come down as mainly just snow. Eastern Ontario will also see some rain or mixing as the system reaches them by the evening which will switch over to snow by midnight. Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue overnight and into Sunday morning. We should start to see some clearing just after sunrise on Sunday starting with those in the west and by the afternoon for Eastern Ontario.

The exact impacts of this system will vary depending on the track so we should note that the above map is only a very preliminary estimate of potential snowfall accumulation. We are still just under 48 hours away from the beginning of the snow and there is the chance that models shift around closer to the event which would mean the swath of the heaviest snowfall will also shift. There is lower confidence along the Lake Ontario shorelines, Deep Southwestern Ontario and into Eastern Ontario along the International border which could see more mixing or rain. If the switch over to snow doesn’t happen as fast as currently indicated by the models, it may result in underachieving snowfall totals in those areas.

At this point, we believe there is the potential for between 12-20cm of snowfall accumulation extending from the Lake Huron shoreline, through Lake Simcoe and into the Ottawa Valley. More widespread totals will range from 8-16cm which includes the rest of Southwestern Ontario through the Golden Horseshoe and Central/Eastern Ontario. Lower totals are expected for the Lake Erie shoreline where the switch over to snow will take longer and will see more rain from this system. Again, these zones may shift around somewhat depending on the track so be sure to check back late Friday for our final detailed forecast on this system.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Tuesday, December 28, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Light snow is expected to continue overnight into Tuesday morning throughout Eastern and Central Ontario. We aren’t expecting much in terms of snowfall accumulation with a centimetre or two of accumulation. We could see between 2-4cm across Sudbury, North Bay and Algonquin Park. Another system will skirt across Lake Erie late Tuesday afternoon which could bring accumulating snow to Deep Southwestern Ontario. Accumulation between 2-6cm is possible for the Windsor and Chatham-Kent area by the end of the day with the majority of the snowfall coming after the dinner hour. The moisture from this system isn’t expected to make it that far north. Roughly north of a line from Goderich to Toronto will see barely any snowfall from this system. Snowfall will taper off just after midnight as the system fizzles out.