Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Wednesday, January 12, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

There is the potential for some lake effect flurries or snow off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay primarily during the morning and afternoon hours on Wednesday. We aren’t expecting much in terms of significant accumulation from this event as the lake effect snow won’t be particularly organized. Those in Central Ontario east of Georgian Bay along with Grey-Bruce counties could see localized accumulation ranging from 2-6cm by the end of Wednesday. The rest of Southern Ontario will see some brief flurries sometime during the day with less than 2cm of accumulation expected.

Snow Squall Threat Continues Into Tuesday With Up to 25cm of More Snow; Coldest Air of the Season To Invade Southern Ontario Feeling Like -30°C to -40°C on Tuesday Morning

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The lake effect snow machine is expected to continue into Tuesday morning as the coldest air of the season so far brings extremely cold temperatures to Southern Ontario. It has been a fairly snowy start to the week for some areas through the traditional snowbelt in Southern Ontario as intense snow squalls brought near-zero visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation between Sunday afternoon and Monday.

It appears that the hardest-hit region so far with the snow squalls was the Midland area which got a significant dumping of snow. We’ve received many reports of snowfall accumulation ranging from 30-50cm with locally even higher amounts due to snow drifting. Those in Grey-Bruce counties and into Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough also woke up on Monday to heavy accumulation ranging from 10-30cm depending on the location.

Those that felt the brunt of the squalls over the last 24-36 hours should be out of the woods for the most part as a more northwesterly wind direction will push the lake effect activity further south. Lake effect snow and localized squalls will reorganize this evening off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron with a focus on the southeastern shoreline of the lakes. The Georgian Bay squall will mainly affect the Collingwood and Blue Mountains area and stretch inland through Angus and into Northern York Region. The City of Barrie should yet again just end up on the edge of this squall, but they also could see occasional bursts of heavy snow overnight. General accumulation here will range from 10-20cm with locally up to 25cm particularly closer to the shoreline around Collingwood and Meaford. The snow squall activity will taper off just after sunrise on Tuesday.

For Lake Huron we expect a fairly intense squall to set up around midnight somewhere between Point Clark and Goderich, stretching inland to the southeast into Lucan and North London. There is still some uncertainty on the exact direction of the squall which will determine who sees the most snow accumulation. The worst conditions will be during the overnight and early Tuesday morning as the lake effect machine slowly shuts off later in the morning. We’re looking at the potential for 10-20cm (locally up to 25cm) of additional snowfall accumulation for the Huron and Perth counties along with just to the north of London. It’s quite possible the squall may reach quite far inland and affect the City of London for a few hours so it’s not out of the question London gets between 5-15cm (or even more if it’s stronger than expected).

While the lake effect activity will be quite localized, the extremely cold temperatures won’t be with those across Southern Ontario waking up to some of the coldest air we’ve seen in quite a long time on Tuesday. The coldest temperatures will be found through Central and Northeastern Ontario with the thermometer reaching near -30°C and the wind chill making it feel like between -35°C and -40°C. Around Lake Simcoe and into the Ottawa Valley, we’re looking at the air temperature reaching close to -25°C and the wind chill making it feel like -30°C and -35°C. It will be slightly ‘warmer’ around the Lake Ontario and Huron shoreline including the GTA with the temperature around -20°C and wind chill feeling like -25°C.

Those in Extreme Southwestern Ontario including Windsor and Sarnia will be the hotspot Tuesday morning with a balmy temperature around -15°C. Thankfully, this cold air won’t last long with temperatures quickly warming up to between -10°C and -20°C for a daytime high on Tuesday. Please be sure to dress accordingly if you’re planning on being outside for an extended period of time. Frostbite and other cold-related dangers can become life-threatening in a matter of minutes with temperatures this cold! And please don’t forget about your furry friends. If it’s too cold for you, it’s too cold for them! Bring them inside or find a way to keep them warm. Stay safe and warm!