MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, July 9, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Strong isolated storms are expected to develop later this afternoon in Western Manitoba along the Saskatchewan border. As these storms track southeastward, they will encounter an explosive environment around areas such as Minnedosa, Neepawa, and Portage La Prairie. This environment is likely to result in many of these storms becoming significantly severe, with threats including very large hail up to the size of golf balls or even tennis balls, as well as destructive wind gusts exceeding 115 km/h. There is also a potential for a few tornadoes today.
By the early evening, the cluster of isolated supercells will track toward the Winnipeg region. The strength of these storms upon reaching Winnipeg remains uncertain, but the primary threats are expected to be more related to damaging winds rather than large hail and tornadoes. In addition, there is a chance of severe storms in Southeastern Manitoba along the Ontario border this afternoon before they move into Northwestern Ontario, potentially producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.
TORNADO RISK
The tornado risk will be concentrated in a narrow region stretching from Dauphin southeastward through Neepawa and Portage La Prairie. This area has the highest risk of experiencing a few tornadoes during the mid to late afternoon hours and into the early evening.
As the storms reach areas further east later in the day, the tornado risk will gradually diminish due to the less favorable environment. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in much of Southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg.
