Snow Squalls Return to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt This Week With Up to 10-15cm of Snow by Late Monday
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December kicked off on a messy note with a winter storm bringing snow and prolonged freezing rain to parts of the Ottawa Valley. However, the last few days have treated us to record-breaking warmth, with many locations across Southern Ontario registering double-digit temperatures on Saturday.
This weather roller coaster is expected to persist as we enter the second week of December. This time, we anticipate more typical winter conditions, featuring a near-miss snowstorm in Eastern Ontario and a resurgence of lake-effect snow activity around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron.
There has been much discussion about a potential system this weekend that, at one point, seemed likely to bring significant wintry weather to parts of Southern Ontario.
While we've been closely monitoring it, the models presented too much uncertainty and disagreement to even attempt a forecast. It is now evident that this system will track far to the east, crossing over the US Northeast and into Quebec, where 15-30cm of snow is possible tonight and throughout Monday.
Recently, attention has focused on whether there might be slight adjustments to the west, potentially bringing heavy snowfall to parts of Eastern Ontario. As of now, this western track hasn't materialized in the models, and some have even shifted it further east.
We could still see a few centimetres of snow along the US border in Eastern Ontario, including Brockville and Cornwall, during the day on Monday. However, it will likely max out at around 5cm, possibly locally as much as 7cm, but that remains uncertain.
In addition to the system snow, we are closely monitoring the potential for disorganized lake-effect snow bands to develop off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron late Sunday evening. The heaviest lake-effect activity appears focused on the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron.
Localized snow squalls will persist throughout Monday. While the activity is expected to remain fairly disorganized and spread out, even weak lake-effect snow has the potential to reduce visibility. Strong wind gusts between 30-50 km/h could cause blowing snow, so it's essential to drive according to the conditions!
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By the time the squalls fizzle out on Monday evening, the hardest-hit regions, including Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, Angus, Wingham, Goderich, Clinton, Mitchell, and Stratford, could see snowfall totals ranging from 5-10cm.
There's a possibility that a few localized totals could approach 15cm if the lake-effect bands are more intense than expected. However, this depends on the exact location of the squalls, and not everyone within the 5-10cm zone will see that much snow!
For surrounding regions southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, we anticipate up to 5cm of snow over the next 24 hours. Local totals could be slightly higher if the squall activity stretches further inland. Some light snow will move across northern parts of Central Ontario early Monday, leading to snowfall totals of around 2-5cm.
For the rest of Southern Ontario, expect a few brief bursts of lake-effect flurries throughout Monday, but it won't lead to any notable accumulation.
