ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, May 7, 2023
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Heavy rain is expected to work its way across Southern Ontario starting Sunday morning and continue throughout the day. Within this area of rainfall, there is the potential for a few non-severe thunderstorms to produce isolated lighting strikes, strong wind gusts and small hail.
In addition to this, there appears to be a pocket of instability that will build into Southwestern Ontario towards the later part of Sunday. This may allow for an isolated severe risk if we see storm development take advantage of this energy. However, models are suggesting that the morning rainfall may linger into the early afternoon which would make storm development unlikely.
We are going with an isolated severe risk for this area based on the potential for localized wind gusts up to 90km/h and nickel-sized hail. This may need to be downgraded in the Saturday update if storm development is looking less likely.
STORM TIMELINE
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As for timing, the primary risk will be during the afternoon and early evening hours. The severe threat will be mainly between 2-6 PM for Southwestern Ontario, but these storms will be very isolated (if they even develop) so not everyone will see storm activity.
The non-severe risk will be more widespread during the late afternoon and early evening hours across Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. For Eastern Ontario, the thunderstorm threat will begin by the dinner hour and continue through much of the evening.
