ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, June 2, 2023
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THURSDAY PM UPDATE: The latest data remains consistent with our preliminary forecast from Wednesday. We have expanded the non-severe thunderstorm risk into the GTA. The ‘isolated’ severe risk zone is more for the flash flooding potential due to the slow-moving nature of these storms. If we see large hail, damaging wind gusts and maybe even a tornado it will be likely east of Ottawa where a few supercells can’t be ruled out.
After a very long break from thunderstorm activity in Southern Ontario, that streak is about to end with the potential risk for severe storms in Central and Eastern Ontario on Friday.
We expect to see the development of isolated pop-up thunderstorms across Central Ontario during the afternoon into the early evening. While most of these storms should remain non-severe, we have gone with an isolated severe risk as these storms will be moving quite slowly and could present a flash flooding threat. Could also see some small hail and strong wind gusts.
Some of the latest model data suggest that there could be a fairly strong severe threat in Extreme Eastern Ontario in the Cornwall area to the east of Ottawa. Models are showing an intense cluster of storms developing over Quebec by the late afternoon and sinking southward into Eastern Ontario. We believe the potential exists for up to 100 km/h wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out either.
