ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 24, 2023
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A second day of potential severe weather is in store for parts of Southern Ontario on Thursday. It's shaping up to be somewhat reminiscent of Wednesday's scenario, with Southwestern Ontario once again at the forefront of a strong severe risk. However, this time around, the storms are expected during the usual mid-day hours, a departure from the late-evening events experienced in Deep Southwestern Ontario on Wednesday night.
According to the latest data, a favourable environment for robust severe storms is projected to take shape starting from the early afternoon hours onwards. The focus lies on Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Huron shoreline.
With a reasonable level of confidence, we anticipate storm initiation during the afternoon to early evening timeframe. The exact location where these storms will intensify remains uncertain. The prevailing scenario suggests the likelihood of a sizable cluster of storms forming over Lower Michigan and traversing Lake Huron, making their way into Southwestern Ontario by late afternoon to early evening.
Alternatively, there's a possibility of isolated storm development over Lake Huron, resulting in fewer storms affecting Deep Southwestern Ontario. Indications also point to the potential for isolated storm formation ahead of the primary line, impacting inland regions including Kitchener, Hamilton, and possibly parts of the GTA.
Irrespective of the scenario, the atmospheric conditions will be conducive to storm activity capable of producing wind gusts of up to 110 km/h, hail the size of golf balls, and even one or two tornadoes. Flooding concerns remain prominent, especially given the recurrence of heavy rain for areas that received substantial rainfall on Wednesday. An additional 50-100mm of rainfall could contribute to localized accumulation approaching 200mm over the span of two days.
The most elevated risk area lies in Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Huron shoreline. This event is anticipated to unfold between 2 PM and 8 PM, with the possibility of storms extending into the later night hours. As the storm line advances southeastward, it may impact the Golden Horseshoe during the evening.
Consequently, there's an isolated to slight risk of severe weather forecasted for the Niagara, Hamilton, and Toronto regions. Our primary concern centers around potential damaging wind gusts, with hail and tornadoes becoming less likely as the storms progress eastward. Keep an eye on the sky and stay tuned for further updates.
