ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 3, 2023
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Central and Eastern Ontario are in the bullseye for a strong risk of severe weather on Thursday. Isolated supercells are anticipated to develop somewhere in the vicinity of North Bay, extending into Algonquin Park during the early afternoon. These storms are projected to track southeastward, impacting regions such as Bancroft, Pembroke, Renfrew, and the Ottawa Valley later in the afternoon and early evening.
As time progresses, a transition from discrete storms to a more consolidated cluster is expected. Storm threats will include hail up to the size of golf balls and destructive wind gusts, potentially reaching 110 km/h. With the environment favouring rotating storms, there is a possibility of one or two tornadoes occurring.
The storm threat will persist as it reaches the Brockville and Kingston region, with the mature line of storms expected to affect these areas around 8-10 PM. During this time, the primary concern will shift to strong wind gusts, though tornadoes will still be possible.
Another risk zone has our focus around the Lake Huron shoreline, where isolated storms may develop over the lake during the late afternoon. These storms could subsequently track onshore, carrying the risk of severe weather, including hail up to the size of ping pong balls, 100 km/h wind gusts, and the potential for one or two tornadoes. However, this area has a lower level of confidence in its forecast, as storm development may not occur or may happen later than expected.
In the extreme southern portion of Northeastern Ontario, including North Bay, a strong severe risk is in place. Storms are projected to initiate here before tracking into Eastern Ontario during the early afternoon hours. A slight severe risk also extends into Sudbury and along the Georgian Bay shoreline, where a line of storms may form before traversing over Lake Huron. Both of these areas carry a favourable environment for large hail, strong wind gusts, and the possibility of an isolated tornado.
