ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 3, 2023
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Weather conditions in Southern Ontario are set to take a potentially severe turn on Thursday, with a strong threat of severe weather expected for Central and Eastern Ontario. Current model guidance suggests the development of an explosive weather environment stretching from Muskoka to the Ottawa Valley, with possible storm initiation during the afternoon and early evening.
However, uncertainties linger about the precise location and timing of these storms. While Central Ontario may experience limited storm activity, confidence is higher for the Ottawa Valley, where a few supercells could form, bringing threats of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall.
Of particular concern is the tornado risk, which could be strong with these storms. Regions such as Pembroke through Renfrew and into the Ottawa area have the highest tornado risk. The potential for one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out in these areas.
Moving southward, storm activity is also possible over Lake Huron, extending into areas east of the lake, including Kincardine and Goderich. While these storms may not have as favourable environmental conditions, they could still reach marginally severe levels. An isolated tornado risk also exists in this region. We will closely monitor the evolving environment, and based on the data, we may need to expand the 'slight' risk to encompass this area.
We will issue an updated forecast late Wednesday evening once we have thoroughly assessed the latest data.
