Severe Storm Threat Shifts to Eastern Ontario on Tuesday With Tornado Risk for the Ottawa Valley
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Southern Ontario is currently enjoying an unusually warm stretch of late May weather, expected to continue for a few more days. With this heat, the risk of thunderstorm activity also remains present, particularly on Tuesday.
While storm activity was primarily concentrated in Southwestern Ontario and parts of the Golden Horseshoe on Victoria Day, the focus will shift eastward for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Isolated storms have already started to develop east of Georgian Bay and are expected to strengthen as they move into Central and Eastern Ontario during the afternoon.
A broad area, from the Ottawa Valley southwest toward Lake Simcoe, is under a slight risk of severe weather today. Although not everyone will experience a storm, those that do could face severe weather threats, including hail up to the size of toonies, wind gusts of 100 km/h, and possibly an isolated tornado. Areas potentially impacted include Peterborough, Bancroft, Pembroke, Renfrew, Smiths Falls, Ottawa, and Cornwall.
The primary risk period is slated for the late afternoon to early evening. The Ottawa region could see storm activity around the dinner hour. Most storm activity is expected to wane between 8 and 9 PM as the sun sets and the heating that fuels these storms diminishes.
In addition to Eastern Ontario, there's a questionable storm threat in Deep Southwestern Ontario along the Michigan border. There are indications that an isolated storm or two could cross the border, potentially bringing marginally severe threats such as quarter-sized hail and 90 km/h wind gusts. While the risk of a tornado is low, it cannot be completely discounted.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, the storm threat across Southern Ontario appears quite potent. Models currently disagree on storm development; some predict limited activity while others forecast an intense line of storms during the afternoon and evening. The environment is expected to be conducive to severe weather if storms do develop. We will provide more details in an upcoming forecast.
