NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, August 16, 2023
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The risk of severe weather is set to make a return to Northern Ontario on Wednesday, marked by the anticipated formation of a potent line of storms during the late afternoon. A robust environment is expected to develop ahead of the line of storms, providing substantial energy as it traverses Northwestern Ontario. This environment could lead to various severe hazards, including the likelihood of a couple of tornadoes, hail of golf ball size, and gusts of wind surpassing 110 km/h.
As of the latest data, the onset of storm initiation is projected somewhere in the region between the Manitoba border and the Dryden area. The initiation is estimated to unfold during the time frame of 2 - 5 PM. During this period, the tornado and hail risk is expected to be at its maximum. These isolated discrete cells have the potential to grow into rotating supercells, heightening the risk of tornadoes and large hail.
As the late afternoon approaches, these isolated storms are forecasted to merge together, culminating in the formation of a squall line extending from Atikokan to Armstrong. The main storm concern will shift towards widespread damaging wind gusts, surpassing speeds of 90 km/h. While the possibility of large hail and tornadoes remains, their overall likelihood is anticipated to wane as the merge occurs.
The line is anticipated to reach the Thunder Bay area by early evening. At this point, the precise severity of the storm threat becomes less certain, so we have placed them in between the slight and strong risk on our map. However, Thunder Bay is likely to see strong storms either way.
