NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, August 2, 2023

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NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE WHICH WILL BE EASIER TO READ.

Widespread thunderstorms are on the horizon for much of Northern Ontario on Wednesday, bringing with them the potential for severe weather. A potent environment will set the stage for any storms that develop to become severe, with threats including hail up to the size of golf balls, 100 km/h wind gusts, and flash flooding. The timeline for storms will span from the afternoon into the evening hours, with the peak intensity expected between 4 PM and 9 PM.

In the central part of Northern Ontario, just north of Thunder Bay, we have a 'strong' risk forecasted due to the threat of supercells. These supercells may produce very large hail, strong wind gusts, and the possibility of an isolated tornado. The tornado risk is strongest in Northeastern Ontario near the Quebec border, where we could see one or two tornadoes. However, the hail and wind threats in this area are somewhat lower, leading to a 'slight' risk classification.

Decoding Thunderstorm Forecasts: Threats Over Probability ⚡️🌩️

When it comes to thunderstorm forecasts, there are two distinct approaches:

  • Forecasting the probability of thunderstorms occurring based on storm development.

  • Forecasting the potential thunderstorm threats based on the environment.

Both methods have their merits, but at Instant Weather, we prioritize focusing on the threats rather than just the probability. After all, it's the possible threats that pose a real danger to you.

We achieve this by carefully evaluating the latest model data and assessing the level of threat posed by each type should storms develop in a particular region. This includes the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding.

Our overall severe risk classification comprises 6 categories: non-severe, isolated, slight, strong, significant, and extreme. The final category is determined based on the maximum threat level among all the individual threat types.

The graphic above highlights the risk levels of each threat type and their correlation with the overall severe risk. Minor regional differences exist between Ontario and the Prairies; for example, tennis ball-sized hail is classified as a 'strong' risk in the Prairies, while in Ontario, it's considered 'significant'. This variation results from the higher frequency of large hail occurrences in the Prairies compared to Ontario.

Please note that our forecast map doesn’t focus on probabilities, so we don't guarantee storms for a specific region.

In fact, most locations within a region may not experience a single storm. The localized nature of storm development makes it challenging to predict. Instead, we aim to inform you about the potential threats IF storms develop in a given area, based on the surrounding environment.

For a comprehensive understanding of how widespread an event could be and the potential for a ‘bust’, we encourage you to read the entire forecast discussion.