August 27, 2023

NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, August 27, 2023

August 27, 2023/ Brennen Perry

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Sunday.

August 25, 2023

ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, August 26, 2023

August 25, 2023/ Brennen Perry

Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Saturday.

August 25, 2023

NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, August 26, 2023

August 25, 2023/ Brennen Perry

Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Saturday.

August 25, 2023

ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, August 25, 2023

August 25, 2023/ Brennen Perry

Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Friday.

August 25, 2023

NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, August 25, 2023

August 25, 2023/ Brennen Perry

Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Friday.

August 24, 2023

ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 24, 2023

August 24, 2023/ Brennen Perry

For Southwestern Ontario, the rhythm of thunderstorms seems unending as the region experienced a relentless night of storm activity, delivering a soaking 100-200mm to Windsor and Essex County. Unfortunately, the storm saga continues, as a second day of potential severe weather awaits Southern Ontario on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Confidence is growing in what might shape up to be a potentially hazardous day, particularly in Deep Southwestern Ontario, with potential extensions into parts of the Golden Horseshoe. The stage is set for strong severe storms, with a favourable environment likely to unfold starting from the early afternoon hours.

Fresh data suggests that the overall storm threat could surpass initial expectations. In response, we've introduced a ‘significant’ severe risk zone specifically focused on Deep Southwestern Ontario. The reasons behind this upgrade include the threat of wind gusts reaching up to 120 km/h and an elevated tornado risk. While the primary concern revolves around the potential for destructive wind gusts, it's worth noting that the possibility of large hail up to the size of golf balls can't be dismissed, particularly within isolated early-day storms.

Key questions surround the precise location of storm initiation. Initial models indicated storms emerging over Michigan during the late afternoon hours and subsequently crossing into Southwestern Ontario by evening. However, the latest trends depict a line of storms developing from the Western GTA, extending through Kitchener and over Lake Huron.

As this evolving line of storms descends southward, it will encounter a prime environment over Southwestern Ontario, which may spur rapid intensification. Timing still holds a degree of uncertainty, with the possibility of storms being pushed to a later evening occurrence. However, this shift doesn't seem likely to influence the severity of the events.

Further storm development is also possible over Michigan, impacting Deep Southwestern Ontario. In this scenario, a wide-ranging complex of storms could sweep the region with robust damaging wind gusts spanning 100-120km/h, during the late evening into the early overnight hours. While the tornado and hail risk is anticipated to be more pronounced as storms initially form, the focus may later shift to a wind-driven threat as the day progresses. This variable risk hinges on the potential storm appearance over Michigan.

We've incorporated an ‘isolated strong tornado’ risk specifically for the Windsor and Chatham regions. This risk hinges on storm development in proximity to the border and their subsequent trajectory into Southwestern Ontario during the height of the tornado risk. In either case, the possibility of tornadoes remains a significant concern.

Amid these dynamics, the concern for flash flooding is in the spotlight, particularly in areas that witnessed substantial rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday morning. The prospect of an additional 50-100mm of precipitation further accentuates localized accumulation, potentially totalling 200-300mm within two days.

Moving beyond Deep Southwestern Ontario, the severe threat extends to portions of the Golden Horseshoe, including the Niagara and Hamilton regions, which have a ‘slight’ severe risk. Some data points to isolated storm development in the late afternoon and evening, possibly bringing in hail of ping pong ball size, wind gusts reaching 100 km/h, and the potential for an isolated tornado. As always, stay vigilant, keep an eye on updates, and stay safe.

August 24, 2023

NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 24, 2023

August 24, 2023/ Brennen Perry

Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Thursday.

August 24, 2023

ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 24, 2023

August 24, 2023/ Brennen Perry

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE UPDATED FORECAST

A second day of potential severe weather is in store for parts of Southern Ontario on Thursday. It's shaping up to be somewhat reminiscent of Wednesday's scenario, with Southwestern Ontario once again at the forefront of a strong severe risk. However, this time around, the storms are expected during the usual mid-day hours, a departure from the late-evening events experienced in Deep Southwestern Ontario on Wednesday night.

According to the latest data, a favourable environment for robust severe storms is projected to take shape starting from the early afternoon hours onwards. The focus lies on Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Huron shoreline.

With a reasonable level of confidence, we anticipate storm initiation during the afternoon to early evening timeframe. The exact location where these storms will intensify remains uncertain. The prevailing scenario suggests the likelihood of a sizable cluster of storms forming over Lower Michigan and traversing Lake Huron, making their way into Southwestern Ontario by late afternoon to early evening.

Alternatively, there's a possibility of isolated storm development over Lake Huron, resulting in fewer storms affecting Deep Southwestern Ontario. Indications also point to the potential for isolated storm formation ahead of the primary line, impacting inland regions including Kitchener, Hamilton, and possibly parts of the GTA.

Irrespective of the scenario, the atmospheric conditions will be conducive to storm activity capable of producing wind gusts of up to 110 km/h, hail the size of golf balls, and even one or two tornadoes. Flooding concerns remain prominent, especially given the recurrence of heavy rain for areas that received substantial rainfall on Wednesday. An additional 50-100mm of rainfall could contribute to localized accumulation approaching 200mm over the span of two days.

The most elevated risk area lies in Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Huron shoreline. This event is anticipated to unfold between 2 PM and 8 PM, with the possibility of storms extending into the later night hours. As the storm line advances southeastward, it may impact the Golden Horseshoe during the evening.

Consequently, there's an isolated to slight risk of severe weather forecasted for the Niagara, Hamilton, and Toronto regions. Our primary concern centers around potential damaging wind gusts, with hail and tornadoes becoming less likely as the storms progress eastward. Keep an eye on the sky and stay tuned for further updates.

August 23, 2023

ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, August 23, 2023

August 23, 2023/ Brennen Perry

As August winds down and cooler nights settle in across Southern Ontario, there's a noticeable touch of fall in the air, with some areas experiencing single-digit overnight temperatures. This shift to colder air also signifies the winding down of our primary severe thunderstorm season. While the risk of severe thunderstorms can persist into September and even October, historically, the most intense severe events tend to occur during the months of June, July, and August in our region.

However, there's no quiet exit in sight for summer just yet. The threat of severe thunderstorms is looming over parts of Southern Ontario for Wednesday and Thursday. The latest data indicates a potential storm threat in two separate waves over the next 48 hours.

The first wave is expected to develop late on Wednesday and continue into Thursday morning, bringing with it a potential risk of strong nocturnal storms in Deep Southwestern Ontario. A second severe risk is forecasted for Thursday afternoon and early evening, affecting a similar area as on Wednesday.

The overall weather pattern is intricate, with multiple elements in play. Bands of heavy rain are projected to develop across Central and Southwestern Ontario during Wednesday morning, resulting in a prolonged period of steady rainfall in the GTA and areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. There's also the possibility of embedded thunderstorm activity within the band of precipitation.

Simultaneously, colder air will accompany the area of rain, leading to notable temperature differences across Southern Ontario. For instance, while the GTA and regions around Georgian Bay struggle to reach daytime highs in the mid-teens on Wednesday, the Ottawa Valley and Deep Southwestern Ontario are expected to enjoy temperatures ranging well into the mid to upper twenties.

In the southwestern part of the province, a pocket of significant instability is anticipated to form across Michigan and extend into Deep Southwestern Ontario by Wednesday evening. Models suggest that the line of ongoing precipitation will gradually shift southwestward and intensify as it taps into the more robust environment. By the late evening hours, this line of storms could potentially become quite intense as it moves through the London, Sarnia, Chatham, and Windsor region between 10 PM and 2 AM.

The overall storm risk is subject to some uncertainty primarily due to the timing of this event. If it were to occur a few hours earlier, it would likely fall within a significant severe risk based on the expected intense environmental conditions. While we have opted for a ‘strong’ severe risk due to the later timing. We can’t rule out a potential upgrade to ‘significant’ if our confidence grows in a more widespread event.

These late-night storms could potentially bring strong wind gusts of up to 110 km/h as the primary threat. Although large hail up to the size of ping pong balls is also possible, the linear nature of the storm may mitigate the likelihood of very large hail. The atmospheric conditions could also support the development of a few tornadoes, with the possibility of an isolated strong tornado.

In addition to the damaging wind threat, there's a notable risk of flash flooding on Wednesday. The slow movement of the storm line could result in prolonged heavy rainfall over specific areas, particularly in Southwestern Ontario, potentially leading to rainfall totals exceeding 100mm. Urban areas, which are more vulnerable to significant rainfall in short periods of time, could experience localized flooding.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to clear out of Southern Ontario by Thursday morning. Later on Thursday, the environmental conditions could allow for more storm development in Deep Southwestern Ontario during the afternoon and early evening. However, the models present varying scenarios, so we'll wait for the initial round of storms to unfold before focusing on the specifics of the second round. Keep an eye out for our forthcoming forecast for Thursday afternoon/evening!