Severe Storms Expected Across Eastern Ontario With Isolated Tornado Potential & Damaging Wind Risk

Valid: Sunday, August 2nd, 2020

Forecaster: Adam Skinner

Issued: Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 - 1:30PM

Thunderstorm outlook mapMOBILE TIP: YOU CAN ZOOM INTO THE MAP BY CLICKING ON IT. THE MAP WILL OPEN IN A NEW TAB THAT IS EASILY ZOOMABLE.

Thunderstorm outlook map

MOBILE TIP: YOU CAN ZOOM INTO THE MAP BY CLICKING ON IT. THE MAP WILL OPEN IN A NEW TAB THAT IS EASILY ZOOMABLE.

NOTE: The tornado risk zone outlines the region with the highest probability of tornadoes, but tornadoes may occur outside of the zone.


Timing


Golden Horseshoe: 1PM - 5PM
Central: 1PM - 6PM
Eastern: 1PM - 11PM

Not sure what region you are in? Click here for a map showing the regions across Southern Ontario. Northeastern Ontario is north of North Bay (not shown on map).

Thunderstorm Threats


Thunderstorm Confidence


Very High (90%)


Severe Confidence


Medium (50%)


Tornadoes


One or two

Max Wind Gusts


100+ kmh | 62+ mph

Max Hail Size


~3cm | ~1.2"

Max 24-hr Rainfall


~50 mm | ~2"

Forecast Discussion

Clusters of severe storms are possible in eastern Ontario and potentially isolated parts of central Ontario today. Rain has already been falling for much of the region overnight into this morning but isolated thunderstorms with the potentially to become severe this afternoon and evening is seeming possible.

The latest morning model runs have not been as strong as previous runs but it still seems likely that there could be isolated damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h+, torrential rain with isolated flooding, 2cm hail or perhaps a bit larger (up to 3cm in the strongest storms), frequent lightning, and the potential for one or two isolated tornadoes, especially in eastern Ontario. We’re seeing a hint of a chance near Lake Simcoe and up into the Muskoka area. However, the risk in central Ontario is a fairly questionable at this time. Heck, the risk in eastern Ontario is a bit questionable but the dynamics are there to produce a tornado or two so we’ll be watching very closely and we’ll be sending out proactive notifications to those in the path. To get notifications for rotating storms that may have the potential to produce a tornado, please download our free app: Instant Weather or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts that do not require internet access.

Be safe, folks! We’ll continue to monitor the latest data and send out updates when required.

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