Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, May 27, 2023

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An environment ripe for robust severe thunderstorm development is anticipated across parts of South-central and Southeastern Saskatchewan this Saturday. The latest data suggests the possibility of isolated supercells developing around the Assiniboia and Moose Jaw regions during the late afternoon. These are expected to track northeastward during the late afternoon and evening.

We foresee these isolated storms converging into a primary storm line from Weyburn through Regina to Watrous by the early evening. Additionally, there might be new storms popping up south of the border, heading toward Estevan and Oxbow.

Given the highly conducive environment forecasted for Saturday, we are seriously contemplating introducing a targeted 'significant' severe risk zone around Moose Jaw and Regina. This includes the potential for a strong tornado and extremely large hail. An update to this forecast may occur in the morning after reassessing the latest data, should the environment maintain its strength.

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Initial isolated storms could present threats such as golf ball-sized hail, wind gusts up to 115 km/h, and a possibility of one or two tornadoes. The tornado risk is most potent earlier in the storm lifecycle before the storms coalesce into a line and start adopting a more bow-shaped pattern. Thus, areas including Assiniboia, Moose Jaw, Regina, and Weyburn carry the highest tornado risk. As the storms transition into a more linear structure, the threat shifts towards damaging wind gusts. However, large hail and tornadoes, while lesser threats at this stage, can't be entirely ruled out.