Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 1, 2023

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Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across Saskatchewan on Thursday. We have adjusted our forecast to include a more southern slight risk zone encompassing Assiniboia, Moose Jaw and Watrous. The isolate serves threat has also been expanded to include more parts of the northwest.

The main concern will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h, but large hail could also be an issue with these storms expected to develop along the US border during the afternoon and track northeastward into the province. As for the tornado risk, the main storm mode appears to be more linear compared to isolated discrete storms which would make tornadoes less likely, however, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 1, 2023

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Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across Saskatchewan on Thursday. Based on the environment, we believe there is a slight risk of severe storms in Central Saskatchewan including Moose Jaw, Outlook, Watrous and Wynyard.

The main concern will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h, but large hail could also be an issue. As for the tornado risk, the main storm mode appears to be more linear compared to isolated discrete storms which would make tornadoes less likely, however, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Isolated severe risk exists for much of Southern Saskatchewan with up to 90 km/h wind gusts and quarter-sized hail possible.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, May 31, 2023

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Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected to affect much of Saskatchewan on Wednesday during the afternoon and evening. The potential for severe storms exists in Northwestern Saskatchewan later in the day with storms developing in Alberta and tracking into the Lloydminster and Meadow Lake region around the dinner hour. These storms could bring 100+ km/h wind gusts, toonie-sized hail and maybe even an isolated tornado.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, May 30, 2023

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Isolated non-severe storms are expected to pop up across much of Southern Saskatchewan during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, May 29, 2023

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Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected in Southwestern and Eastern Saskatchewan during the afternoon and evening on Monday. While these storms should remain non-severe, they could produce funnel clouds and maybe even a landspout.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, May 28, 2023

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Isolated storms are possible across much of Saskatchewan on Sunday. A few of these storms may reach severe levels in Southeastern Saskatchewan with the risk of 90 km/h wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, especially around the Yorkton and Kamsack area where the environment is the strongest.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, May 27, 2023

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An environment ripe for robust severe thunderstorm development is anticipated across parts of South-central and Southeastern Saskatchewan this Saturday. The latest data suggests the possibility of isolated supercells developing around the Assiniboia and Moose Jaw regions during the late afternoon. These are expected to track northeastward during the late afternoon and evening.

We foresee these isolated storms converging into a primary storm line from Weyburn through Regina to Watrous by the early evening. Additionally, there might be new storms popping up south of the border, heading toward Estevan and Oxbow.

Given the highly conducive environment forecasted for Saturday, we are seriously contemplating introducing a targeted 'significant' severe risk zone around Moose Jaw and Regina. This includes the potential for a strong tornado and extremely large hail. An update to this forecast may occur in the morning after reassessing the latest data, should the environment maintain its strength.

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Initial isolated storms could present threats such as golf ball-sized hail, wind gusts up to 115 km/h, and a possibility of one or two tornadoes. The tornado risk is most potent earlier in the storm lifecycle before the storms coalesce into a line and start adopting a more bow-shaped pattern. Thus, areas including Assiniboia, Moose Jaw, Regina, and Weyburn carry the highest tornado risk. As the storms transition into a more linear structure, the threat shifts towards damaging wind gusts. However, large hail and tornadoes, while lesser threats at this stage, can't be entirely ruled out.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, May 27, 2023

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across South-central and Southeastern Saskatchewan on Saturday. Isolated storms are expected to develop along the international border during the afternoon and continue to expand northward. Based on the environment, these storms could have the potential to produce 100+ km/h wind gusts, toonie-sized hail and an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

It’s possible we may have to introduce a ‘strong’ risk for severe storms in the Weyburn-Regina corridor as some models indicate a very strong environment with wind gusts and large hail. This could mean a higher tornado threat as well. However, we aren’t convinced just yet and will wait to consult the updated data on Friday evening.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, May 26, 2023

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THURSDAY PM UPDATE: The latest data continues to show the isolated storm risk with no change to the forecast needed.

Thunderstorms are possible in Southeastern Saskatchewan and along the international border during the afternoon and evening on Friday. Some of these storms particularly along the Manitoba border including Estevan, Oxbow, Moosomin and Kamsack could reach severe levels with 90 km/h hour wind gusts and nickel-sized hail. Funnel clouds and maybe even a landspout isn’t out of the question.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, May 25, 2023

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WEDNESDAY PM UPDATE: The latest data continues to support a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in Southeastern Saskatchewan on Thursday. Although, we have shifted the severe risk slightly to the east as most of the storm development appears focused east of Regina. The strongest risk for storms includes the Weyburn, Melville and Yorkton areas.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in parts of Southeastern Saskatchewan on Thursday afternoon continuing into the evening. These storms will have a slight severe risk associated with them and could bring the potential for 100 km/h wind gusts, loonie-sized hail and maybe even an isolated tornado. The storm threat will diminish later in the evening as the storms track out of the province and into Manitoba.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, May 24, 2023

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Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across much of Southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The strongest risk for severe weather will exist in a corridor stretching from Shaunavon through Moose Jaw and into Wynyard. They could see intense storms with threats including up to toonie-sized hail, 115km/h wind gusts and localized flash flooding due to rainfall amounts approaching 75-100mm.

Outside of that region, there could be a few isolated severe storms with hail and wind being the primary threats.

TORNADO RISK

The strongest tornado risk will exist closest to the international border and into parts of South-central Saskatchewan. One or two tornadoes are possible somewhere in a zone including Shaunavon, Assiniboia and Moose Jaw. Further to the northwest, there is a risk for an isolated tornado through Regina, Watrous, Humboldt and Tisdale.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, May 24, 2023

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There is the risk of isolated thunderstorms across Saskatchewan on Wednesday during the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms particularly in Southwestern and South-central Saskatchewan around the international border could reach severe levels with quarter-sized hail, 90km/h wind gusts and potentially even funnel clouds or a landspout.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, May 23, 2023

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The environment is favourable for isolated severe storms in South-central Saskatchewan on Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, storm development is questionable which is required to take advantage of the environment. If we do see storms develop somewhere around Assiniboia and Moose Jaw, they could reach severe levels with quarter-sized hail, 90km/h wind gusts and maybe even a landspout.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, May 22, 2023

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There is the risk of severe thunderstorms in Southwestern Saskatchewan. The strongest risk is directly along the border where storms are expected to develop over Southeastern Alberta on Monday afternoon and will cross into Saskatchewan by the late afternoon. The main risks are up to 3cm size hail and 100+ km/h wind gusts. There is also the potential for an isolated tornado associated with these storms.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, May 21, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Sunday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, May 20, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Saturday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, May 19, 2023

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Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of Alberta on Friday afternoon. These storms will likely cross into Western Saskatchewan during the evening. At this point, it appears that any storm activity will remain non-severe across Saskatchewan with small hail, strong wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, May 18, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Thursday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, May 17, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Wednesday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, May 16, 2023

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Isolated pop-up storms are possible in the southwestern portion of Saskatchewan during the afternoon and early evening on Tuesday. These storms should be pretty weak with small hail and a few lightning strikes being the main threats. However, the environment is favourable for the development of funnel clouds. In rare cases, these funnel clouds may touch down and become a landspout. We’ve highlighted the highest potential for landspouts with an ‘isolated’ severe risk on the map.

Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.