Major Snowstorm on the Horizon for Southern Alberta This Weekend; Blizzard Conditions and Up to 30–50cm of Snow Possible

Winter is getting well underway across Alberta and that will continue to be true as we head into a very active weekend with multiple rounds of snowfall blasting parts of Southern Alberta. The worst conditions are expected late Saturday into Sunday as a strong low-pressure system tracks into Saskatchewan with very heavy snow recaching into Southern Alberta. Wind gusts between 50-75km/h are also expected to develop at the same time which no doubt will create hazardous driving conditions out on the roads due to blowing snow. The criteria for a blizzard may be reached in areas such as Lethbridge, Taber, Brooks and Medicine Hat creating whiteout conditions. When all is said and done, we’re looking at as much as 30-50cm of snowfall accumulation by Monday in the above-mentioned regions with local amounts potentially exceeding 50cm in the higher elevations around the Pincher Creek and Cardston area.

Wet snowfall mixed with rain has already started to affect areas near the International border and that is expected to linger into Saturday as temperatures hover a few degrees above the freezing mark. At this point, accumulation will be fairly light given that it will be wet snow and most of it will melt on contact. The exception to this is the higher elevations southwest of Lethbridge that are already near the freezing mark and is expected to remain that way throughout the weekend. Further to the north, the Edmonton and Lloydminster area will see moderate snowfall during the day on Saturday from this first round and the temperature will be several degrees below the freezing mark so it should have no problem accumulating. We expect this first round of snow to move off into Central Saskatchewan sometime during the evening hours on Saturday as a more potent round approaches from the south. Accumulation after the first round will generally range from 10-15cm including Edmonton and less near the border where some of the snow will melt with that Pincher Creek and Cardston zone seeing over 20cm.

You might be thinking that this ‘storm’ isn’t that bad by the time you get to Saturday evening but don’t be fooled! The worst is yet to come as temperatures plunge overnight Saturday with the snowfall rate picking up as heavier bands of precipitation reach the southern part of the province. This is also when we’ll see wind gusts start to increase reaching 50-75km/h around the midnight hour. These gusts will continue through Sunday morning and afternoon as the snow only continues to get heavier. Travel is strongly discouraged during the day on Sunday in the hardest-hit regions as near-zero visibility on the roads along with rapidly accumulating snowfall will be occurring during this time. Conditions will begin to slowly improve late Sunday from west to east with the extreme southeast corner of the province (Medicine Hat area) being the last region to see conditions improve. The system will fully move out of Alberta by midnight leading to a clear start to the week as you wake up Monday morning to clean up.

As far as accumulation goes, totals for the entire weekend including both rounds of precipitation will vary significantly throughout the province. We expect the highest totals in a zone around the US border including Pincher Creek and Medicine Hat where the accumulation will range from 30-50cm and potentially more than 50cm in some localized areas. Surrounding regions including Claresholm, Lethbridge and Brooks will likely top out at around 20-30cm although the potential is there for this zone, in particular, to overachieve the forecast depending on where the bands of snow end up. A fairly expansive zone stretching from High River through Central and Southeastern Alberta including Edmonton, Drumheller and Lloydminster will see between 10-20cm. And finally, we currently have the Red Deer and Calgary in the 5-10cm zone but there’s high uncertainty as some models show Calgary getting less than 1cm of snow while others have over 10cm so it could be higher or lower than our forecast.

Stay safe this weekend and if possible just stay home and off the roads. If you must travel, be sure to drive according to the conditions.