Blizzard Near Miss for Southern Manitoba; Risk of Prolonged Freezing Rain Sunday Through Monday

We’ve been closely monitoring a system that is expected to affect the Prairies this weekend over the past few days. Models have shifted around and at one point it looked like Southern Manitoba could’ve been dealing with a historic blizzard. Fortunately, that doesn’t appear possible with the latest data but what we will be dealing with instead is a risk of prolonged freezing rain starting early Sunday morning. The focus of the freezing rain threat will be on Southwestern Manitoba including Virden, Roblin, Dauphin and Swan River where up to 12-16 hours of constant freezing rain is possible. We could see fairly extensive ice accretion on untreated surfaced in these areas including rural roads, sidewalks, tree branches and power lines so expect hazardous driving conditions and power outages.

Light freezing drizzle is expected to develop sometime late Saturday into Sunday morning as the system approaches the region. There is some disagreement amongst the models on where the freezing line will be located but it should be somewhere around the Brandon and Neepawa area which means those in Western Manitoba will see some form of freezing precipitation (mainly freezing rain or ice pellets). Southcentral and Southeastern Manitoba including Winnipeg will be well above the freezing mark throughout this event and will see minimal freezing rain if any at all. In fact, during the day on Sunday, it will be quite mild for the Southeastern part of the province with the temperature reaching into the upper teens or perhaps even the low 20s! The temperature gradient throughout the province will be extremely tight so while Winnipeg basks in late summer-like temperatures, Brandon and Southwestern Manitoba will struggle to get above the freezing mark.

The precipitation will continue to become more intense during the morning hours and into Sunday afternoon. This is when we expect the worst conditions with very heavy freezing rain occurring during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. As we mentioned above, the temperature gradient will be very tight so there won’t be much distance between locations that see major impacts from the freezing rain compared to those that warm up enough to switch over to regular rain before the heavier precipitation arrives. This will be very true for locations around the Brandon area because models disagree on the exact temperature and how quickly it will warm up. The consensus is that Brandon will rise above the freezing mark just after the noon hour but if this doesn’t happen quickly enough then they could see way more ice accretion than forecasted.

It looks like the freezing line will stabilize somewhere around Virden through Peguis. Areas north of this will see mainly freezing rain while those to the south could see some freezing rain Sunday morning but will switch over to regular rain as we get into the afternoon. Further north, the storm will bring heavy snowfall to Northern Manitoba including locations such as Flin Flon, Thompson and Port Nelson could be dealing with as much as 30-50cm of snowfall by Monday. Strong winds will also be accompanied by heavy snowfall with blowing snow and blizzard-like conditions likely between Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. Precipitation will begin to taper off early afternoon on Monday although could linger around for the northern part of the province until late Monday evening.

Just a quick mention that while Southern Manitoba is missing a potential blizzard, the same can’t be said for those throughout Saskatchewan. We’re expecting widespread accumulation between 30-50cm for much of Central Saskatchewan by Monday. View our Saskatchewan forecast HERE.